Is NAB a buy at these prices?, page-119

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Flukey Luke

147 Posts.

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02/10/20

18:05

Post #: 47819981
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Originally posted by pe981: ↑

The Covid vaccine talk has ben hi jacked by politicians who talk up the prospects of an imminent breakthrough while the medical profession maintains a much more cautious approach. Clinical trials are exactly that and trying to assess efficacy before completion is pointless.
When (and if) a vaccine is discovered (and approved) there will still be a considerable lead time for the manufacture, distribution and vaccinations . Not sure that Australia will be at the head of the line as manufacturers ramp up production however putting in place supply arrangements early is a sensible move.
There will be considerable pressure around the world as to how any vaccine is rolled out and we may see it directed to where it is most needed!!
A treatment drug may be a better bet shorter term which would allow communities to have confidence of living with the virus with a greatly reduced death rate and no risk of overloading hospitals from break outs.
Of course, any announcement of approval of a vaccine or effective treatment will certainly improve market sentiment however at the end of the day the actual performance of any company will be what counts.
As our economy opens, the actual fall out from the lock downs will be laid bare. For banks it will mean they will need to address distressed loans and over the next 12+ months they will probably have to crystalise expected losses. SP may then be under a bit of pressure if the real losses start rising more than expected and provisioned. Banks will also be under pressure if the economy takes a while to start the next growth phase.
It should be noted that while our international borders are essentially closed they are still operating for trade, so large parts of the economy are operating as normal. Obviously there are specific industries just about decimated including tourism (intn) and education while many small businesses in Australia may fall by the wayside based on regional lock downs and lack of work.
Our banks remain in a privileged position and while earnings may be under pressure in the coming couple of years as the country recovers they still have a sound fundamental earnings base which is the main reason I was only focusing on how NAB is performing in the here and now and what that might mean.
Just my take on it.............

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Sell all your investments Donald Trump has a runny nose lol

NAB Price at posting: $17.49 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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