below is from Orbis report dated 9 Jan 2009.
"These REITs offer extraordinary value. You can basically buy these REITs for less than 10% of their
latest independent valuations (net of associated debt), and well below the cost of building. Net income
(excluding any items of an unusual nature) is more than 100% of the purchase price. While debt levels
are higher than one would like, rentals, on average, cover interest twice. Many REITs have decided to
slash distributions (effectively dividends paid to investors) and retain the cash to reduce debt, a sensible
strategy in our opinion and one which will reduce future risk. Nevertheless, with only 20% of profi ts
paid out, we estimate the average distribution yield will be over 20%.
The two major risks for investors are that banks refuse to renew the REITs¡¯ loans when they mature
and tenant bankruptcy. Since they are still covering their interest easily and are reducing rather than
increasing debt, we think it very likely that the banks will roll the debt forward. In fact, in December, a
large consortium of banks extended Centro Retail Trust¡¯s debt for two years despite it being one of the
most leveraged players. Directors have also been signifi cant buyers of a number of these shares in the
last quarter. The risk of tenant bankruptcy is higher than usual given the weak economic conditions,
however this risk is very diversifi ed."
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