MSB 2.08% 94.0¢ mesoblast limited

Updated Broker Report: Bel Potter, page-85

  1. 1,292 Posts.
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    I think reading into the delay in readouts = bad news is a little too pessimistic IMO. SI has previously said that the reasons for the delay were due to COVID and the increased workloads on senior management to get the ARDS trial up and running across the USA, including MIS-C. That alone has been a mammoth effort (21 hospitals have not been opened in USA, plus hospitals in Canada and Australia, plus any hospitals requiring MIS-C).

    On top of this, they have been obviously busy taking blood samples of COVID patients and analyzing the data (on that point I had no idea they were allowed to do that, as surely they will be able to have a good understanding as of today as to how the drug is going - i.e. I am guessing the blood-work will show who has received Rem-L v placebo, and therefore they would have a good indicating of overall mortality in placebo v controlled group).

    They have also been required to prepare for ODAC meeting and aGHVD (now failed) launch.

    This kind of work cannot be done by middle management, but rather by the executive team. As such, there has not been the resources to then dedicate to CHF and CLBP and this was made clear that delays were due to COVID, not results. As such, if you are now doubting the word of senior management, then it's strange why you would remain invested in a company whose future relies on the competence of its management moreso than most other companies.

    I for one take SI at his word that the delay has nothing to do with the results - i.e. why would SI be discussing potential partnership deals for CHF if he believed the results were poor?!

    Also, food for thought - see the below sale of MYOK for $13B USD that has a platform drug for the heart. Goes to show that if MSB CHF is approved as to what our MC may be if a big pharma ever came knocking...

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/2535/2535478-3f1855249d72e24555d2880f999bc6bd.jpg

    Last edited by LJohn: 07/10/20
 
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