Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-21

Look at the announcements made by Peak over the past three years. In particular, take note of the announcement on the 6th of September, 2017: "Peak Lodges Special Mining Licence application for Ngualla". Since then, there's not been much of substance on the matter. Talks, negotiations, advancements... but no grant.

Over three years since the application, and still no sign of the license. No license means no mine, and hence no company. In addition, the Teesside site was selected in 2016; the two year option period (with a right to extend for a further 12 months) was announced on the 10th of July, 2018. This extension has been exercised - meaning that the company has about nine months (give or take) to buy the land, or face the prospect of the permits for the refinery effectively expiring.

In short, the long, protracted situation with the SML is the number one risk here. Nobody knows exactly what is going on, outside of the Tanzanian government. If the SML is granted, it's pretty much certain that the share price will rocket. Until then, though, this company remains highly speculative; I would argue more so than it was in late 2017 when the license application was still fresh.

Caveat emptor; the sovereign risk is what you'd be accepting here in exchange for a significant profit if the SML is granted. (Note that I said "if", not "when".)