Cpg, I do not post to please the detractors or the pumpers. Those with thunderous fury refused to understand why I follow this stock despite my continuous disclosure. whether I hold BTA shares or not, do not influnce the way I post. All the old timers on HC may remember the challenges/fury I copped from dma the eternal BTA optimists at the time when I had substantial BTA shares.
Upsides For Biota: Biota certainly has the products with the possibilities for big things to come. On the upside is the World Community is rising to the recognition of Relenza’s superiority to Tamiflu. And certainly the UK order and the seasonal flu market in Japan are the evidences. In a booming world economy, this momentum will drive Biota forward with Pandemic stockpiling and possibly capturing some market share for seasonal flu. Lani is in Phase 3 trials and has shown great potentials BUT is still not ready for the market yet. Then there is the HRV trials. These are all the potential upsides for Biota.
Downside Risks: GSK has not change one iota since the cozy cooked deals and there are also clear evidences of that. After being dragged out of bed to produce hundreds of millions courses of Relenza during the height pandemic stockpiling market, it is shocking to see GSK supplying 0.4m courses in Feb and 0.6m in Mar on the cooked excuse of preventing the Japanese from hoarding Relenza. If you believe this stupid reason then it also implies GSK is not interested for corporations to hoard Relenza for pandemic planning. It clearly shows GSK is more interested in selling pandemic flu vaccine, Relenza options and seasonal flu vaccines.
The biggest drag is the talented Peter Cook and his mates. Many HC posters had wondered how to reconcile GSK’s 13 million GBP sales with Peter Cook $28.3m sales and we now have confirmation the poor Sod do not know how to use a calculator to convert the GSK public announcement in GBP to Aud. Now that we know the depth of Peter Cook’s mathematical talent, it could possibly explain why the cook announced in the AGM the September cash balance was $55m (31.5 cents/share) and the cash backing was 35 cents. Or is it possible that the parasites have their snout buried so deep in the BTA kitty that they are not able to read the GSK public announcement? Just like they ignored the shareholders voting down the LTIOs.
Unknowns: Will the worldwide financial crisis push pandemic stockpiling to be a secondary concern?? No body knows the depth of the crisis and any opinion expressed is just guesswork. What is BTA cash backing? What is BTA’s cash burnt? The only announced income was the $3.5 m Astra Zeneca payment and the miserable $1.9m Relenza royalties. And Peter Cook and his mates are spending big, showering themselves with LTIOs including buying BTA shares to back up the LTIO in complete contempt for shareholders. My estimate is the cash backing had peaked at $55m and could possibly be less than half now. My estimate/calculations are on public record for those interested. If the cash backing is more than $55m, it is a safe bet to expect Peter Cook to have announced it instead of feeding the share brokers the September figure.
The NEXT Significant Event: Biota is due to release the half-year results very soon. This will reveal the cash backing and the cash burnt.
CGP, BTA is a dream share for share traders with the pump and dump cycles. If you are a trader, get on board.
As for me, I am waiting for the results to see the premium between the sp and cash backing and how fast the cash is diminishing. Let me repeat for those angry spruikers – the reason why I am following BTA is I believe in the products and there are positive signs tampered by the downward risks. IF and when I believe the risk/reward is at a level I am comfortable with, I may buy BTA shares. HOWEVER my postings are not to drive the price down. Forums like HC (imho) do not influence the sp – it is only new investors who may get hurt by the pumpers and dumpers.
IF BY some miracle the pedigree studded board resign, I will definitely buy BTA shares.
BTA Price at posting:
46.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
