re: Ann: Goldman Sachs retained to seek buyer...
Investment Summary • We maintain our BUY recommendation and a price target of $1.49/sh based on a risked valuation of booked 319bcf of 2P reserves. The March Q will be a critical quarter for MAE with targeted increased production and a reserves upgrade required in order to progress corporate level aspirations by mid-2009. Should production targets be reached shortly, followed by the upgraded reserves assessment, we remain confident that this will provide the necessary catalysts within this timeframe. • Steady-state production of 5mmscfd achieved during the quarter. Despite historical setbacks MAE commissioned its production operations, overcoming hydrates and slowly bringing on production via its upgraded facilities. Although production has been slow to come online MAE remain confident of achieving its 20mmscf/d target rate - once achieved this will be a significant catalyst. We eagerly await any upgrade in steady state production. Sales revenue for the quarter was minimal at $0.9m due to he delayed start-up and a lag in receipt of sales resulting in net operating cash flows of ($10.36m) after $7.1m in development costs. Achieving increased steady state sales during the March Q is critical for MAE to progress its strategy and to offset expenditure. • Drilling of the Oman 10-29 successfully completed with a production test ongoing. The well will add incremental production and better define proven (1P) reserves for the field. • Two resource reports were completed during quarter indicating potential recoverable resources of 2.4 to 4.3 tcf from non-producing reservoirs. The resource assessments were an important step in highlighting the long term value of the fields to a potential buyer. They demonstrate the upside value of the assets as a resource play, above and beyond the producing Clear Creek reserves. • Additional funding of $US10.5m was negotiated at the end of the quarter, bringing total facilities to $US36m. While additional debt adds risk at the current production rates, it provides confidence that the banks due diligence process was supportive of the investment. Update for the December Quarter 2008 4 February 2009 12mth Rating BUY Price A$ 0.25 Target Price A$ 1.49 12m Total Return % 497.0
RIC: MAE.AX BBG: MAE AU Shares o/s m 343.8 Free Float % 100.0 Market Cap. A$m 86.0 Net Debt (Cash) A$m 36.9 Net Debt/Equity % 41.9 3m Av. D. Tover A$m 0.39 52wk High/Low A$ 1.37/0.13 2yr adj. beta 1.88 Valuation: Methodology DCF
Disclosure: Patersons Securities Limited acted as Lead Manager to the Placement issue that raised $15.0m at $0.86 per share completed in August 2008 and previously acted as Lead Manager to the Placement issue that raised $43.5m at $0.90 per share completed in November 2007. In addition, Patersons Corporate Finance Limited acted as Marion Energy's merger and acquisition advisor for the acquisition of Odyssey Energy's assets announced in June 2008 (due for completion on 1 September 2008) and has been retained by MAE to assist with both present and possible future corporate advisory assignments.
MAE Price at posting:
29.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held