Ann: Phase 3 Trial in COVID-19 ARDS Surpasses 50% Enrollment, page-234

Agreed Col.

People were talking about recrutiment as if its linear, its clearly exponential. It takes time to set up very strict protocols and procedures, but they now have 21 sites up and running to the 1 of Mt Sinai when dosing was started in early May!! We should get a 60% analysis in late November or early December at the very latest and recruitment complete in December per the company advice (so 100% in January unless it gets stopped).

@kervio has done some excellent work on Bayesian statitistics and puts some definite credence in an early finish at 60% recruitment. He uses 50% fatality in the placebo cohort at worse, where as from SI/FG comments, I would use 60% so personally give some possiblity to a 45% finish as well. One way or another there is a distinct possibility, if we have anything like the compassionate use success rates, we will have great news late November / early December.

Another ride up on the roller coaster that is MSB?