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19/10/20

10:54

Post #: 48194223
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Originally posted by Orwell: ↑

Hi Eklavya, haven't been on this thread for a long time so interesting to see someone here. I got an alert.

GMA is in a downtrend. There's nothing technically to suggest it will turn here and you'd certainly need some confirmation given the economic situation. I don't think that low in March is a bottom that will hold it, it could easily go lower and from my charts looks like it will.

Fundamentally, I'm someone who thinks the housing market will crash hard. 40% from peaks. I can't see how GMA as a mortgage insurer could cover that, although I haven't looked in to how they operate. Nevertheless, the economy is on life support and once the stimulus of jobkeeper and waiver on business insolvency ends or is reduced soon the housing market and economy could get nasty.

I wouldn't go long here, although that is just my view from a quick look at the chart and economic outlook. If you had some reason the stock fundamentally could turn around then ok, but it looks too risky.

Other than some small spec stocks that aren't so much market affected and a mid-cap gold stock under takeover, I don't have any large cap long exposure. I've have to find a stock that might be a defensive stock in a fall to do so. Rather, I'm actively looking for ways to short the market, although that is also quite difficult at the moment, as you'd need to time that precisely so very cautious right now. I am looking into BBOZ and BBUS as interesting lower risk ways to invest in shorting the market, not set yet though.

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Hey @Orwell - what are you holding these days assuming you are out of CDV or will soon be ?

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The Big Boys, page-1012

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Week 39 Wrap: What HotCopper’s watching; China’s new stimmy moves boost metals; Oz CPI drop

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

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