Hi Thunder, I have been buying BTA recently and have got some which in my mind is incredibly cheap. I'm going to be holding though the financial crisis as I believe it will make me a huge return. Why do I believe this will happen? Here are my reasons:
1) LANI is flying though clinical trials. The Japanese are pushing this one though and it looks to be an awesome drug, both as a preventative and treatment. The market is probably somewhere like 1bn p.a.
2) Relenza is making breakthoughs in sales. Both stockpiling markets and seasonal markets have recently indicated Relenza is the drug of choice. We should get at least one full round of re-stockpiling orders globally along with some good years of sales in the seasonal markets now GSK are "free" from legal obstructions and Tamiflu problems.
3) Pipeline is looking great. Three drugs moving ahead, all of which seems to be completely priced out. HRV phase II has been paid for and results due mid-year. Others are also set to make announcements this year.
4) Financial position looks strong. Cash and royalties looks to make this company financially secure, at least till the pipeline matures and perhaps even take on new programs. A buy back is also possible.
In short, when the market recovers I think there is plenty of "blue sky" that can be priced into the stock. They can earn massive royalties in the years ahead by way of LANI. A further license aggrement if phase III succeeds could spur investment in the stock.
BTA Price at posting:
46.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
