Very interesting Marky.
Interesting times:
- Geopolitics
- Transformational energy policies
- Monetary system / US petrodollar under pressure due DeFi, neo banking, potential CB crypto, pressure on SWIFT system, international trade avoiding USD.
- Interest rates
- Debt - government and private.
- Civil unrest, unemployment
- Covid
One thing's for sure; volatility's going to increase approaching election, and probably post election too. Meanwhile markets remain steaming ahead despite the lockdowns and anything else on the aforementioned list.
I'm not sure what will happen, and nobody else does either. Imo, free market forces will have the last say. Markets will surprise. Debt and the interest rates which have distorted asset prices will eventually catch up with us. There are many similarities now with 1929 imo. I'm not a bear per se, but the time is ripe for history repeating.
The populous commentary suggests interest rates will remain low, as will oil. The opposite will probably happen. I can't think of many accurate forecasters. Particularly with oil; which has a history of spiking in geopolitical tensions, of which the era is primed. Also, oil will remain an integral part of economies despite the commentary which implies it's a bygone like coal. What a joke.
Interest rates will also rise quicker than expected. If the markets take a deep dive post election, I'll be looking for longs in oil, gold and copper.
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