based on the fundamentals

I take a 1-year view with a target of c. 100-120c.

Here is my rationale:

Ore milled ~ 1.7m
Grade (oxide) ~ 1.9g/t
Recovery ~ 80%
Therefore est recovered gold ~ 83,087 oz
Sold into hedge ~ 24,624 oz
Sold at spot ~ 54,463 oz
(assuming average POG of US$950/oz over 2009)
Revenue from hedge ~ US$17.2m
Revenue from spot ~ US$55.5m (although reduced by PUT options)
Therefore total sales ~ US72.7m
Cash costs at US$401/oz ~ US$33.3m
G&A ~ US$5m
EBITDA ~ US$34.4m
Tax charge ~ US7.3m
Net earnings ~ US$27m
EPS ~ US0.05
(using PER of x15 - seems reasonable in comparison with peers)
Target SP ~ US0.75 (ie AU$1.13 @ 0.66 forex rate)

CAPEX ~ US$13m (but likely to increase with sulphide expansion).
Cash at end of 2009 ~ US$32m (after recent placing).

Reality is, of course, likely to be considerably at odds with above due to the vagaries of the market, POG volatility, cost of out-of-the-money PUTs, possible bid action, further results from oxide and sulphide resource expansion, Tabar drilling, et al.

But it is the general ball-park target I prefer instead of the day-to-day trading 'noise'.
AIMHO of course
CPDLC