PYC (ASX) PYC Chart looks the goods

Originally posted by Medicine Man: ↑
The Institutional component of CR was oversubscribed. The overall figure is not available but a figure of 130+% has come through the grapevine. The official closing time of book build was 5pm, some were cutting off their sophisticated investors' bid as early as 3:45pm due to huge demands.

Orphan Drug Designation application is now put on hold. Hottod has given a very plausible explanation in his Post #:48349988. A lot of people might be disappointed but PYC has not misled investors. Checking back on my Post #:47845765, they never said FDA would make a decision by end-Oct.
Monday 05.10.2020

The deadline for rare paediatric disease designation (RPDD) and Orphan Drug Designation (ODD) have been clarified by Kaggen Asmus (Chief Business Officer - PYC) in a Zoom meeting and subsequent follow ups last week.
- Timeline of 60 days for RPDD ... ... might take as long as 12 months ...

- Timeline for ODD is 90 days and PYC is expecting to hear back from FDA by end Oct-2020..

Next 2 weeks to 05.11.2020:

As alluded, arbitrage took place and dragged the open price down to 17.5c when trade resumed on 22.10.2020. SP recovered to 18.5c the next day only to be sold off with high volume towards Friday's close. In theory nobody would sell at 17c or below, but you might be surprised! Just like the 5.5c CR last year, some might sell below 17c to take profit thinking the real SP is now diluted. One must be reminded that this time PYC is in a much better place. If SP does retrace below 17c, it would be shallow and short lived.

Once again, professional traders would pull out all the tricks in the book to push it below 17c so they could buy more. The sideway consolidation lasted 2 weeks last time and hopefully it would be no more than that this time. The trading range would be 15.5-17.5c until 05.11.2020.

The Bear Case:
Unfavourable news on ODD - this is highly unlikely as PYC appears to put this on hold until animal model data pack is available which would be 2021.
Problem with rabbit tox results - the test results are not due until 2021.
Stock market wobbles - this could happen but just look at the Covid crash in Mar-2020, SP dropped 36% from 7c to 4.5c, only to re-emerge 3 weeks later to peak at 8.5c with a gain of +21.4%. As I have commented before, PYC is Covid resilient. Last time they were affected by logics of getting the CPP, rabbit and monkey with slight delayed. At the start of the pandemic couriers didn't know how to get around. But alternate routes have now been identified and further disruption would no longer affect their research works. Unless total lockdown in Perth preventing staff to attend the laboratory in person, this is quite unlikely given zero infection in Western Australia.

The Bull Case:
If there are positive news on rare paediatric disease designation (RPDD). The main incentive attached to RPDD is that the drug sponsor becomes eligible to receive a Priority Review Voucher (PRV). The PRV is a transferable voucher that allows the bearer to receive priority review for any future product. Products with priority review can expect an FDA approval decision within 6 months of NDA submission, instead of the usual 10 months. The PRV is sellable and in the past some companies have sold them for amounts ranging from US$67 - $350 million.
If more new drugs in the pipeline are announced, especially ones for the central nervous system CNS which would translate to $$$ sales income. Top 4 diseases in the CNS are:
Parkinson's disease
Multiple sclerosis (MS)
Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS)
Alzheimer's disease
Deals with major pharma companies or takeover proposals - while possible but PYC has indicated their desire to see VP-001 to FDA approval and commercialization.
Overall PYC has plenty of blue sky to expand into with their successful and patented CPP platform. With the announcement of VP-001, PYC-001 and VP-002, it is now gaining traction with US investors and recognition of other pharma companies to possibly form joint venture to develop drugs using their drug cargos and PYC's CPP as efficient transport with low toxicity.

These are my TA thoughts, DYOR! If you would like more of these charts and analysis, please click the "Great analysis" button for encouragement.

Expand
Right on cue! I trust some HC members who read my last post have benefited in trading PYC shares.

For the last 5 sessions, SP has been tracking the predicted curve well (light blue). And it did hit the bottom of 15.5c in the anticipated trading range (pink box). There is a buyer with 1,000,000 shares at 15.5c but only 80,458 shared got filled on open. This could trigger the robots and pros to switch into buy mode. SP quickly recovered and peaked at 17c before closing at 16.5c on Wed 28.10.2020.

Dilution with a 1 for 10 offer would cause a value reduction of 9.0909%. Hence CR at 17c means the true value of each share is actually 15.45c or rounded off to 15.5c. So this is a critical level for SP to drop to, this was how the trading range bottom was derived in my last post.

Wednesday's volume was 2.6X the 12-month daily average, then followed by 2 days with half the average volume means the selloff is pretty much finished. In the absence of any news, SP would track sideway in a consolidation pattern between 16-17c next week.

You need to understand not all investors are LT holders. A lot of people who bought into PYC in the last CR at 5.5c would be very tempted to take the fat 290% profit especially against the backdrop of market jitters caused by Covid and the US Election.

Just looking back at October, PYC has pulled 3 rabbits out from the hat: new drug PYC-001, VP-001 successful on 5 patients' cells, and new drug VP-002. It managed to catapult the SP from 15c to 20.5c, a whopping 36.7% rise BEFORE announcing the CR. The management must be commended for the SP hike in order to buffer the investors from a massive drop from CR discount and dilution. Otherwise we would have been staring at a 12c bottom in the trading range.

After all these years and the hard work done by the team in PYC (both management and the scientists), the CPP platform is now a rock solid drug transport into the human cell with high efficacy and low toxicity; far superior to AAV virus based methods. Lipid Nanoparticles Delivery (LNP) is the other viable transport method and on 14.03.2019 PYC has entered into collaboration with Professor Dan Peer of Tel Aviv University in Israel. Professor Peer is considered a honcho in the field of LNP systems.https://ramot.org/news/2019/collaboration-agreement-with-phylogica-sirna-delivery

I have a warm and fuzzy feeling that more good news would come out in Nov/Dec and 26c by year end is possible, a joyful Christmas for us all.

These are my TA thoughts, DYOR! If you would like more of these charts and analysis, please click the "Great analysis" button for encouragement.