Now that we are very close to the big day it is interesting to see where we are with early voting.
I get the figures from here:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/nevada-resultsFirstly, here are the most recent figures:
| State | VBM Requests | VBM Requests Dem | VBM Requests Rep | VBM Requests Ind | Early Votes Submitted | % Mail In | Number of Mail Ins | % Of Mail Ins Requested | Dems | Repubs | Ind |
|---|
| 1 | Ohio | 3,457,364 | 38.00% | 48.00% | 14.00% | 3,145,808 | 100.00% | 3,145,808 | 90.99% | 38.00% | 49.00% | 13.00% |
|---|
| 2 | Georgia | 1,743,502 | 49.00% | 43.00% | 8.00% | 3,874,614 | 31.00% | 1,201,130 | 68.89% | 42.00% | 51.00% | 7.00% |
|---|
| 3 | North Carolina | | | | | 4,301,647 | 21.00% | 903,346 |
| 37.00% | 32.00% | 31.00% |
|---|
| 4 | Arizona | 3,337,009 | 35.00% | 36.00% | 29.00% | 2,376,706 | 98.00% | 2,329,172 | 69.80% | 38.00% | 37.00% | 25.00% |
|---|
| 5 | Florida | 6,009,505 | 45.00% | 31.00% | 24.00% | 8,083,791 | 55.00% | 4,446,085 | 73.98% | 40.00% | 38.00% | 22.00% |
|---|
| 6 | Wisconsin | 2,030,049 | 35.00% | 43.00% | 22.00% | 1,823,166 | 67.00% | 1,221,521 | 60.17% | 35.00% | 43.00% | 22.00% |
|---|
| 7 | Pennsylvania | 3,043,653 | 63.00% | 26.00% | 11.00% | 2,350,574 | 100.00% | 2,350,574 | 77.23% | 66.00% | 23.00% | 11.00% |
|---|
| 8 | Michigan | 3,388,797 | 39.00% | 41.00% | 20.00% | 2,858,180 | 100.00% | 2,858,180 | 84.34% | 39.00% | 42.00% | 19.00% |
|---|
| 9 | New Hampshire | 232,318 | 48.00% | 23.00% | 29.00% | 170,738 | 100.00% | 170,738 | 73.49% | 50.00% | 22.00% | 28.00% |
|---|
| 10 | Minnesota | | | | | 1,524,112 | 100.00% | 1,524,112 | | 46.00% | 31.00% | 23.00% |
|---|
| 11 | Nevada | | | | | 1,107,789 | 54.00% | 598,206 | | 39.00% | 36.00% | 25.00% |
|---|
To get a sense of what that means for each state we first look at the 2016 Voting and from this we try to forecast how many of today's registered voters are likely to vote:
| State | 2016 Registered Voters | 2016 Actual Voters | % of registered Voters |
|---|
| 1 | Ohio | 6,128 | 5,408 | 88.25% |
|---|
| 2 | Georgia | 4,892 | 4,246 | 86.79% |
|---|
| 3 | North Carolina | 5,194 | 4,700 | 90.49% |
|---|
| 4 | Arizona | 3,145 | 2,769 | 88.04% |
|---|
| 5 | Florida | 9,604 | 8,578 | 89.32% |
|---|
| 6 | Wisconsin | 3,323 | 3,068 | 92.33% |
|---|
| 7 | Pennsylvania | 6,909 | 6,008 | 86.96% |
|---|
| 8 | Michigan | 5,434 | 4,713 | 86.73% |
|---|
| 9 | New Hampshire | 763 | 698 | 91.48% |
|---|
| 10 | Minnesota | 3,055 | 2,738 | 89.62% |
|---|
| 11 | Nevada | 1,371 | 1,195 | 87.16% |
|---|
So now we look at registered voters today and expected voter turnout today. I've put a wet finger in the air and assumed we'll get 2% more voters this time than 2016. No reason for this other than I think there are more people aware that it's not a foregone conclusion like they were told in 2016:
| State | 2020 Registered Voters | Expected Voter Turnout | Expected Votes | Remaining to Vote Compared to Expected to Vote | % Remaining to Vote |
|---|
| 1 | Ohio | 7,774,767 | 90.25% | 7,016,778 | 3,870,970 | 49.79% |
|---|
| 2 | Georgia | 7,002,328 | 88.79% | 6,217,701 | 2,343,087 | 33.46% |
|---|
| 3 | North Carolina | 7,067,058 | 92.49% | 6,536,253 | 2,234,606 | 31.62% |
|---|
| 4 | Arizona | 3,926,649 | 90.04% | 3,535,732 | 1,159,026 | 29.52% |
|---|
| 5 | Florida | 13,891,370 | 91.32% | 12,685,176 | 4,601,385 | 33.12% |
|---|
| 6 | Wisconsin | 3,476,347 | 94.33% | 3,279,106 | 1,455,940 | 41.88% |
|---|
| 7 | Pennsylvania | 8,672,418 | 88.96% | 7,714,900 | 5,364,326 | 61.86% |
|---|
| 8 | Michigan | 7,828,950 | 88.73% | 6,946,760 | 4,088,580 | 52.22% |
|---|
| 9 | New Hampshire | 726,000 | 93.48% | 678,672 | 507,934 | 69.96% |
|---|
| 10 | Minnesota | 3,460,663 | 91.62% | 3,170,783 | 1,646,671 | 47.58% |
|---|
| 11 | Nevada | 1,972,617 | 89.16% | 1,758,838 | 651,049 | 33.00% |
|---|
So how does this early voting compare to previous elections? I could not get the figures for Minnesota or New Hampshire but I was able to get the rest:
| State | 2012 Dem Early Vote | 2012 Rep Early Vote | 2012 Ind Early Vote | 2016 Dem Early Vote | 2016 Rep Early Vote | 2016 Ind Early Vote | 2020 Dem Early Vote | 2020 Rep Early Vote | 2020 Ind Early Vote |
|---|
| 1 | Ohio | 52.00% | 38.00% | 10.00% | 48.00% | 40.00% | 12.00% | 38.00% | 49.00% | 13.00% |
|---|
| 2 | Georgia | 42.00% | 44.00% | 14.00% | 42.00% | 53.00% | 5.00% | 42.00% | 51.00% | 7.00% |
|---|
| 3 | North Carolina | 50.00% | 31.00% | 19.00% | 44.00% | 31.00% | 25.00% | 37.00% | 32.00% | 31.00% |
|---|
| 4 | Arizona | 33.00% | 43.00% | 24.00% | 35.00% | 40.00% | 25.00% | 38.00% | 37.00% | 25.00% |
|---|
| 5 | Florida | 42.00% | 42.00% | 16.00% | 40.00% | 40.00% | 19.00% | 40.00% | 38.00% | 22.00% |
|---|
| 6 | Wisconsin | 46.00% | 39.00% | 15.00% | 51.00% | 37.00% | 12.00% | 35.00% | 43.00% | 22.00% |
|---|
| 7 | Pennsylvania | 36.00% | 56.00% | 8.00% | 43.00% | 48.00% | 9.00% | 66.00% | 23.00% | 11.00% |
|---|
| 8 | Michigan | 31.00% | 44.00% | 26.00% | 39.00% | 36.00% | 25.00% | 39.00% | 42.00% | 19.00% |
|---|
| 9 | New Hampshire | | | | | | | 50.00% | 22.00% | 28.00% |
|---|
| 10 | Minnesota | | | | | | | 46.00% | 31.00% | 23.00% |
|---|
| 11 | Nevada | 45.00% | 37.00% | 18.00% | 43.00% | 37.00% | 20.00% | 39.00% | 36.00% | 25.00% |
|---|
I'll leave you all to make your own conclusions but it looks to me like the early voting advantage that the Dems were touting as their big thing aint such a big thing after all.
Now we have the big day coming, the in person voting on election day. Which party do you think will outperform on that day?
