That's how I felt too and took a position today.
I believe that it's more the negative sentiment following Arix's sell down, and the fear of BVF following the same path as Arix, that resulted in today's dump rather than BVF actually dumping their shares today. My rationale below:
1) Even though the BVF notice stated that they sold on 4th Nov, looks like they actually sold on 2nd Nov (and settlement on 4th Nov) because the sell price is 13c and price never touched this level on 3rd or 4th Nov
2) If BVF really wants to sell completely and exit at any price, they would've dumped left right and centre on 3rd and 4th Nov, like Arix, when 10, 10.5, 11 and 11.5 is available in abundance at many times, rather than sell today when sentiment is weak
3) They sold only 3mil shares since the FDA announcement, hardly they are like Arix who dumped the entire lot and mind you that Arix was dumping a lot even at 9c before the FDA announcement. So, to me, these two have different strategies - Arix wanted to exit at any cost because of the change of their strategy and started dumping big lots well before FDA and took the opportunity of FDA news to use the volume and exit completely; where as, BVF has been selling very very small lots since May 2019 and sold 3mil shares only recently during the big volume event, potentially to lighten the load slightly.
4) If BVF was dumping shares on 3rd and 4th Nov, they would've included it in the notice released today or waited few days till they finished selling and then released the notice. Look at their sells...they reported sells all the way from May 2019 (so clearly they are not in a rush to report right away!)...why would they release this notice today if their intent is to sell more shares? They would've dumped as many as possible before releasing the notice, as they know that this notice would hurt the sentiment i.e. more difficult for them to dump their remaining huge lot!
At this stage, based on the info available I could only infer two things:
a) BVF is done with the selling in the short term and hence released the notice, the market reacted negatively and lost confidence as a result, rather than BVF dumping more shares today
b) BVF knows that market would behave this way and intentionally released this notice (again, they are not following ASX compliance strictly if they are releasing sells from May 2019 now)..why they did this? to cap the price? what's in it for them? to hurt investor confidence? is there an issue between them and management? I have absolutely no idea!!
I understand people's concerns on the product, management and relationship with major shareholders etc, but at this level I am happy to take the risk as the rewards far outweigh the risks associated, at least for me personally. I might be totally wrong though, time will tell!
All IMO, please DYOR
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