Problem here is the same as before, GS want it but so do a lot of others, MDI have their 10%, not sure about Habrok but I'm sure they still have theirs. So now you have a register where ~30% is owned by would be buyers all of which I'd say will be unwilling to roll for one of the others. Of the remaining ~70%, Windsong (wheeler) owns 20 and Harvest lane circa 8-10. The problem is that the suitors will want the company starved of cash since this is a motivator for initiation of a deal, I presume if push comes to shove they will where they can maintain their stake but will do so reluctantly (and MDI who are not cashed up may be forced to not participate). That being the case Windsong is up to their eyeballs and need shareholder approval (unlikely to be forthcoming since the suitors won't want that) and to increase their stake if the company needs funding. Harvest lane got in on an arbitrage opportunity, they have both sold and bought recently but I don't see a large motivation for someone looking for arbitrage opportunities coughing up major cash to fund the company. So now the company is in a spot where it's best option for funding and corporate opportunity is to dilute preferably with new money such that the existing 10% holders become less than 10% holders which might allow a little more diversity of interest on the register as well as new money. Sadly while the asset is good the story has changed little still stranded and needing a register facelift to really get to where it could be. The likely outcome IMO is probably a war of attrition (sadly for the local industry that's probably followed by a trip to FIRB, if GS are lucky china/australlia relations will be in a better place by then, if not who knows).
AME Price at posting:
12.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
