monday's prediction, page-6

I think the ASX is only slightly influenced by the Dow. It is an inconsistent and non-consequential relationship.

The ASX just seems to be following because the Aussie trading occurs 6 to 12 hours later so we can only act on the same news later. But we often act differently.

I think the Aussie traders are sufficiently independent thinkers to do their own assessments and make decisions based on that assessment and not just follow the Dow. Often the Dow is down and the ASX is up, and vice versa.

The mood is down and the ASX will lose 30 to 50 points tomorrow. The down trend of the Dow and the ASX and FTSE etc will continue until the US sorts out Citi and AIG, and GM has fallen over. This will take another three to six months at least...

Obama has botched it so far and this fact is starting to sink in and is hitting overall US business confidence that a fix in the near future can be found, and meanwhile the bail money is mounting astronomically. The longer it goes the more dangerous the situation becomes. I can even see up to 20% falls (spikes) if Obama and Geithner (sp?) continue with their misdirected spending and continue to spook the market.

The same issues are playing out in Europe, where a dozen governments are all trying to help themselves and other countries as well. A real shamozzle. These markets are also headed down for the next 6 months..

Business in the US and other countries can see the dangers and are just not buying equities. With only sellers in the market there is only one way - down. I can't even see a bear market rally start until a month after GM has gone bankrupt.