ATOMO DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED (ASX:AT1) - AT1 FY21 - General Discussion + FA, page-314 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by FinFree101: ↑
I still have a few days left on the Simply Wall Street trial profile...some more automated analysis + updated tables showing (post-AGM data?)

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Here is their Share Price VS Fair Value calc basis for AT1 (should keep danhoff happy for some time? )

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Atomo Diagnostics.
ASX:AT1 Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model
2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 1 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 7.6%
Perpetual Growth Rate 5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 2.3%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for ASX:AT1
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 2.3%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6.0%
Medical Equipment Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.83
Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 0.829) * (1 + (1 - 30.0%) (0.029%))] 0.886
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 0.886
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.26% + (0.886 * 6.01%) 7.58%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation forASX:AT1using2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Atomo Diagnostics is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
ASX:AT1 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast

Levered FCF (AUD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 7.58%)
2021 -0.6 Analyst x1 -0.56
2022 4.3 Analyst x1 3.72
2023 15.5 Analyst x1 12.45
2024 26.9 Est @ 73.58% 20.08
2025 40.94 Est @ 52.18% 28.41
2026 56.18 Est @ 37.21% 36.23
2027 71.19 Est @ 26.72% 42.68
2028 84.99 Est @ 19.38% 47.36
2029 97.1 Est @ 14.25% 50.3
2030 107.44 Est @ 10.65% 51.73
Present value of next 10 years cash flows A$292
ASX:AT1 DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value

Calculation Result
Terminal Value FCF₂₀₃₀× (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= A$107.438 x (1 + 2.26%) ÷ (7.58% - 2.26% ) A$2,064.31
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)¹⁰
A$2,064 ÷ (1 + 7.58%)¹⁰ A$993.97
ASX:AT1 Total Equity Value

Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= A$292 + A$994 A$1,285.97
Equity Value per Share
(AUD) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= A$1,286 / 563 A$2.28
ASX:AT1 Discount to Share Price

Calculation Result
Value per share (AUD) From above. A$2.28
Current discount Discount to share price of A$0.33
= (A$2.28 - A$0.33) / A$2.28 85.5%
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(Trading data seems to be as of 25 Sept'20 - I wouldn't assume all 'insider' buy/sell transactions are listed below)
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((as per table, seems to none past 28 Aug - I wouldn't assume all 'insider' buy/sell transactions are listed)
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(Data as of 25 Sept'20 - don't think we have seen a later Top20 anywhere else, right?) (Top 22 SHs have 63% of company)
Expand
I am happy. I guess that proves if we grow steadily for 10 years, then FOREVER as well, we are currently undervalued.

In other DCF calcs (like for schemes of arrangement to buy out ASX companies) I have seen 5 to 7 years into the future then the terminal value. Here we have 10 years to the terminal value (which is then based on forever!).

All of us here, in our wisdom, have decided together, if Atomo grow a lot, the share price will go up. And not a green bar in sight (just the odd spreadsheet, but only for 3 or 4 years)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
6	747274	1.9¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

747274

1.9¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.0¢	431397	5

Price($)

Vol.

No.

2.0¢

431397

No.	Vol.	Price($)
6	747274	0.019
5	556664	0.018
1	60000	0.016
3	366662	0.015
1	36000	0.014

No.

Vol.

Price($)

747274

0.019

556664

0.018

60000

0.016

366662

0.015

36000

0.014

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.020	431397	5
0.021	32000	1
0.022	40000	1
0.023	200000	1
0.024	126743	3

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.020

431397

0.021

32000

0.022

40000

0.023

200000

0.024

126743

(20min delay)
Last 1.9¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $12.14M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

AT1 FY21 - General Discussion + FA, page-314

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Data Point	Source	Value
Valuation Model		2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow	Average of 1 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global)	See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity)	See below	7.6%
Perpetual Growth Rate	5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate	2.3%

Data Point	Calculation/ Source	Result
Risk-Free Rate	5-Year Average of AU Long-Term Govt Bond Rate	2.3%
Equity Risk Premium	S&P Global	6.0%
Medical Equipment Unlevered Beta	Simply Wall St/ S&P Global	0.83
Re-levered Beta	= 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))] = 0.33 + [(0.66 * 0.829) * (1 + (1 - 30.0%) (0.029%))]	0.886
Levered Beta	Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0 (practical range for a stable firm)	0.886
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity	= Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium) = 2.26% + (0.886 * 6.01%)	7.58%

	Levered FCF (AUD, Millions)	Source	Present Value Discounted (@ 7.58%)
2021	-0.6	Analyst x1	-0.56
2022	4.3	Analyst x1	3.72
2023	15.5	Analyst x1	12.45
2024	26.9	Est @ 73.58%	20.08
2025	40.94	Est @ 52.18%	28.41
2026	56.18	Est @ 37.21%	36.23
2027	71.19	Est @ 26.72%	42.68
2028	84.99	Est @ 19.38%	47.36
2029	97.1	Est @ 14.25%	50.3
2030	107.44	Est @ 10.65%	51.73
Present value of next 10 years cash flows			A$292

	Calculation	Result
Terminal Value	FCF₂₀₃₀× (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g) = A$107.438 x (1 + 2.26%) ÷ (7.58% - 2.26% )	A$2,064.31
Present Value of Terminal Value	= Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)¹⁰ A$2,064 ÷ (1 + 7.58%)¹⁰	A$993.97

	Calculation	Result
Total Equity Value	= Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value = A$292 + A$994	A$1,285.97
Equity Value per Share (AUD)	= Total value / Shares Outstanding = A$1,286 / 563	A$2.28

	Calculation	Result
Value per share (AUD)	From above.	A$2.28
Current discount	Discount to share price of A$0.33 = (A$2.28 - A$0.33) / A$2.28	85.5%

AT1 FY21 - General Discussion + FA, page-314

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