Interesting post. You seem a little bit defensive and this bit in particular is an intriguing choice of words -
"Note that VRL & BGH are fully aware of the likelihood of the Schemes getting up in the current form".
I liked this bit too -
"If VRL is worth close to $5, there would be other bidders emerging. 12 months ago PEP were very keen, but are now silent despite a substantially lower price".We hear exactly the same type of sentiment from the BOD and independent directors. Peter Tonagh continues to talk down the company - he's at it again today in the SMH article -
"The cinema sector is undergoing significant structural change, not just temporary COVID impact while theme parks will continue to be impacted by domestic and international border restrictions," Mr Tonagh said."Appropriate discount rate" you say? That's just it isn't it - this is being treated as a fire sale by a board who appear (publicly) to have given up hope. I'd suggest the truth is they simply want to wipe out us retail plebs and the hassles of being ASX listed. A takeover of a solid company with quality assets should attract a takeover premium, not a discount.
The market is well and truly aware of the challenges of these types of businesses. Do you think investors in Qantas don't realise it will be years before their revenue and profit recover? I don't see the QAN board flogging the company off at $2.50 because the next few years will be tough. How about travel agencies? Lots of pain still to come there, yet the forward-looking market can see the recovery. I could go on, but I doubt you'd entertain my point of view.
Theme Parks are going to come back with gusto. Outbound travel for Australians is going to be extremely restricted for years to come, which is already boosting domestic travel substantially. Before COVID, Seaworld Resort was among the best trading and most profitable hotels in the entire country. Our studio assets will be in high demand, Australia "comes out of COVID" way before most other countries and the film industry is itching to get back to work.
ALG is in far worse financial shape than VRL, yet their share price has increased 500% since the March lows of $0.14
My problem is, VRL has absolutely every chance to return to profit and the future value will follow, in actual fact the Annual Reports say as much - these are temporary problems. So why do the directors keep talking it down as a hopeless case? It's really hard not to be suspicious, especially when two major existing holders are prepared to pay "over offer" prices and are even offering to help recapitalise the business.
I doubt anyone believes an offer of $5 per VRL share would be possible right now. The point is the businesses WILL recover and the true value should be realised by shareholders, not opportunistic vulture capitalists. Cinemas have been underperforming for many years and the market (forward-looking) is aware of the headwinds for cinemas.
Lastly, voting online requires one to nominate a proxy. It is indeed confusing - nominating the chairperson as your proxy doesn't sound like the sort of thing a NO voter would want to do, but in actual fact it appears to be necessary. Another poster phoned the VRL Scheme hotline and was given conflicting information about proxies.
