Let's have a look at the global lithium, battery and EV stock charts and see how they are going.
I am using
LIT - Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF holdings as a guide which is a big pool of related global stocks. They are as below.
FIrstly have a look at LIT chart. It's at $49.90.
All time high!
It looks like they reduced their Tesla holdings (Not in first top 10).
Their top stock is Albemarle; world's top lithium producer.
- More than double of any other holding.
- Not producing battery or EV, but only lithium.
- Has largest hard rock resources in the world, mainly in WA (very little in US).
- 49% owner of Greenbushes mine, 60% of Wodgina (partner with MIN.ASX). And it has large lithium brine resources in Sth America (producing).
That tells me that the most important part of the LIT fund, which is the indicator of world EV, battery and lithium industry is related to hard rock resources of WA (IMO of course).
Now we need to look at this bubble chart in the light of this information again.
Pilbara Mineral (PLS) is not producing lithium hydroxide. They only produce spodumene concentrate. They have a project to produce LiOH in Korea with Posco but it does not seem very likely to be realised any time soon IMO. PLS is selling its spod conc. to Chinese LiOH and battery producers like CATL, Ganfeng, General Lithium, etc (CATL and Ganfeng have large shareholdings in PLS).
PLS is not independent as it is very much dependent on the Chinese lithium and battery supply chain. So we can leave PLS out of our mind.
The large part of top resources on the hard rock lithium supply is dominated by Albemarle. The others who owns the half of those big resource are;
- Tianqi (51% of Greenbushes ... 60mt @2.4% LiO2
- SQM (50% of Earl Grey) ... 90mt @1.50% LiO2
- Wesfarmers (WES) (50% of Earl Grey) ... 90mt @1.50% LiO2
- MIneral Resources (MIN) (40% of Wodgina) ... 94mt @1.17% LiO2
And there is LTR's Kv project at 156mt @1.50% (inc.tantalum credits) which has very high potential to be increased to 180mt soon.
KV project is uncommitted and unencumbered. Waiting for the "acceptable" best offer.
Let's have look at the price charts of lithium, battery and EV companies.
Let's keep in mind that the lithium prices crashed after the end of 2017. The lithium producer companies are now recovering despite the lithium price is still at its lows. The weaks are dead or injured badly, the strongs are now getting used to the lower lithium prcie and learning how to make profit in the new conditions.
There is no hurdle for hard rock producers as it's understood that producing lithium hydroxide from high grade hard rock resources is the only way to stay alive and make good profits. The planned lithium hydroxide capacity of the integrated chemical refineries which are going to be in production soon by Albemarle and Tianqi is already nearly sold out.
Albemarle is planning to increase its LiOH prodcution capacity to 100kt from 50kt.
Therefore ALB's price chart is goin very well. (Weekly chart)
SQM has no hard rock production. Only brine. Still goes well. (Tianqi owns 24% of SQM).
Livent (part of FMC) also goes well. Now buying Nemaska lithium for going into hard rock spodumene concentrate business. Good luck to them as it'd be very hard to produce lithium in close-to-arctic conditions in Canada.
CHINESE LITHIUM (AND BATTERY) PRODUCERS;
CATL; up, up and up.
Ganfeng, a small company has turned to a giant lithium company. has hands everywhere, brine or hard rock, small or big on all resources. Also the partner of Mt Marion with Mineral resources in WA, which has 70mt resources, and producing. Has stake in PLS in ASX.
BATTERY PRODUCERS;
Samsung SDI is the highest quality producer IMO. Nver looks back, always up.
LG Chem is same with Samsung SDI, has done good performance this year despite Covid.
EV MANUFACTURERS (Inc. battery manufacturing)
TESLA; after making 1000% gains in one year, now having a rest IMO.
BYD Chinese (Warren Buffett owns a big stake in this co.)
Up up, and up.
Xpeng EV Co. Another new Chinese EV co.
Listed in NYSE.
Li EV Co. Another new Chinese EV co.
Listed in NASDAQ
And finally another Chinese EV co; NIO
I don't think we, the lithium investors, will be able to have a rest even after we got our money when KV Project or a part of it is sold. We will keep looking and trying to find opportunities in the same sector as it will get better and bigger.
BECAUSE IT'S JUST STARTED IMO
(20min delay)