Attaining a $10B+ valuation (RedBubble v Etsy), page-20

Hi @tonyzhang,

"Agreed, what are some predictions you have for this upcoming quarter? big admirer of ur analysis"

I believe we will see more of the same in Q2-FY21. In other words, I think the strong RBL growth trajectory will continue. In Q1-FY21, the company produced circa $65M in gross profit and circa $26M in EBITDA. The company is starting to print cash now that it is demonstrating strong operating leverage as the platform hits scale. I can foresee another quarter of circa $65M-75M in gross profit and circa $25M-35M in gross profit coming up for Q2-FY21.

By the end of FY21, the company could quite foreseeably be above $120M in TTM EBITDA. On the current share price for a market cap of $1.2B and considering the healthy (and growing) cash balance, that would be circa 9x EV/EBITDA -- that is way too cheap for a fast-growing e-commerce stock.

I don't think we will see prices below $6 for much longer. Once Q2-FY21 results confirm the trend (end of Jan 2021 release), I expect to see the share price moving up to around $7-8 per share.

T.E.P.