Good piece of analysis.
It’s incredulous how people can’t extrapolate the ’do something, do nothing’ scenarios you’ve outlined above.
In fact it’s highly probable if nothing is done, the death rate would be much higher than you’ve suggested, because the extrapolation of 2.2% only accounts for a hospital system below 100% capacity. When over run, then nothing will be done for those least likely to survive and staff will be forced to triage. Mobile refrigerators anyone?
Now factor in the public’s inability to seek non Covid19 care.
Ann: DSMB Analysis Recommends to Continue P3 COVID-19 ARDS Trial, page-361
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