Using 30 criteria (14 macro and 16 financial) i am hoping to (soon???) come up with a few (probably very few) stks that I feel can reasonably safe in predicting will be 10+% higher in 12 mths time. Of course nothing is certain... except change and uncertainty. But no point in being in stkmkt unless one is prepared to take a risk.... based on the facts.
But for me the stk must also have the X factor. Otherwise I may as well place money in a fixed bank deposit.
X factor means the SP has the credentials firmly in place so that should an opportunity present itself.... the company can seize it and have SP respond quickly if not immediately.
A textbook example is a small oiler drilling in an area rich with good size productive oil fields. The company is already doing well and self-supporting. Hence, not dependent on hitting a gusher.... but if/when the gusher does happen... the SP responds strongly and (this is also crucial) is very likely to hold it's new SP high.
Do these shares exist? Yup definitely....but they are not common.
The time frame is also a factor. Take NMS. Everything is lining up for NMS to profit powerfully for the next 2+years. But clearly the mkt feels this is too slow and NMS has got stuck in 28-34c range. I feel it will rise steadily as analysts realise the potential of its technology and strategy. But it will not double in a month or 2 as some holders reckon? IMO no. Is NMS in my portfolio? Absolutely.... and will remain there for 18-24months minimum.
I am shifting through info seeking more companies that have all 30 criteria in place AND the X factor. Long tedious process. Meanwhile hold on tight to your MAH and UGL shares. Def far above the average ASX company.
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