As I mentioned previously, the IDMC has a big influence on whether a drug is fast tracked. This seems to be coming to fruition.
I also mentioned based upon the previous LC Proactive Investor video, that the FDA approved PD1-VAXX for direct use in patients. As highlighted in this current video, the same mechanism for delivery of the drug may have been proven through HER-VAXX. This seems to have also come to fruition.
On my past post of present value numbers, I used 140,000 patients with bowel cancer. Therefore my numbers should be reduced to 20%. But, this doesn't include all the other types of cancers able to be treated using this same drug as highlighted within the announcement of the results.
I am trying to do some calculations based on the Herceptin numbers provided. I notice that @Raki posted a headline of $48 billion and LC mentions $7-8 billion. I will suggest that the $7-8 billion may be based upon licensing (and interestingly this equates to around 15% of the headline value).
As such this may mean if the equivalent outcome, then revenues directly to IMU of around $1.15 per share. If you can expect a return of 10% this would mean the share value could be valued $11.50 on this one drug.
If the numbers LC are providing within the video are based on pre licensing value, then we could expect $0.175-$0.20 per share revenue if based on a 15% licensing model. The equivalent share price would then be somewhere around the $2.00 level.
Obviously this will come to light when a deal eventuates. How long until this happens?
Seeing that it seems likely that FDA used the current data for approval for PDA1-VAXX, I would suggest the application for its use in patients may have already progressed. LC and the IMU team are not silly and they won't have been sitting on their hands waiting. They will have been working towards a deal already and likely to announce one in the short term. Who knows, they might still have time to target November as it's still cancer month.
IMU Price at posting:
10.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
