MSB Trading 2020 - a new dawn, page-11105

MSB snorters on Ventilator support
The visualisations below show projected USA hospital capacity is reaching its limits under standard assumptions. When the worst-case assumptions are applied, it reaches overcapacity by mid-December. Based on the increase in hospitalisations, ICU and ventilators use MSB’s rate of patient recruitment may increase leading to full enrolment by the end of December (unlikely) to end of January 2021 (most likely).

From the ASX announcements made on 23^rd of November we know that 200 patients have been enrolled. That leave leaves 100 places in the trial. The table below shows projected full enrolment date assuming average daily enrolments over the period. These timeframes may not be achieved if the USA hospital system stops all trials due to resource constraints. Best cast 21 December 2020, worst case 3^rd March 2021.

Thechart below shows USA hospitalisation (Blue line RHS) vs ICU beds (Red lineRHS) and Ventilators (RHS). Between mid-June to mid-October the USA had approximately2,000 patients per day on ventilators, this has recently spiked to 6,000 patientsper day. Due to the recent increase in ventilator use MSB’s recruitment could ratesmay triple Therefore, up to 4 trial participants maybe enrolled per day (due toresource constraints I rate this as unlikely but possible).





USA hospital capacity – Standard assumptions




USA hospital capacity – Worst-case assumptions, see bottom left of image

https://metricvu.aha.org/dashboard/covid-bed-shortage-detection-tool?Mean%2FLower%2FUpper=Worst-Case



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.We still must deal M&G above $5. Further, I guess M&G were supporting the SP around $3 and exited those new positions when it approached $5. M&G will recommence their sell down around $5.50. They have enough stock to control the SP.

MSB SP will be de-risked if any of the next major announcements are positive. Our SP will begin grinding higher on positive news expectations and will surge on a positive Covid result. MSB and snorters have 99 days. And snorters have 48,844,992 problems with 5 exit options and a short squeeze is one of them.

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