I agree with you that they've done an amazing job getting the trial together and having a phase 3 that will likely finish within a year for a possible EUA, that's an amazing achievement in the midst of a pandemic. From the sounds of your posts you work in medical field and have probably seen a lot of stuff that people who don't work on the front lines wouldn't be able to comprehend or understand. That must be very frustrating when it appears that people are slinging mud at medical staff for things not running to time - I assure you that's not the case here, any constructive criticism I have is around updates to the market. No one is expressly saying the trial isn't delayed for reasonable reasons or that the people running it are not doing their best. What we are saying is that the company should have updated shareholders on their guidance on enrolment completion when it became clear that they were not enrolling as fast as they thought they would, and explain why. Something like "The trial is not enrolling as quickly as forecast due to (a lower than expected uptake from patients/administrative issues getting hospitals online/increased competition from other trials/lower than expected rates of severe covid) we will continue to provide guidance on when the trial will be fully enrolled as the information becomes available"
I did some rough back of the envelope calculations about a month ago on timelines:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/overwhelming-efficacy-the-stats-required.5579134/page-485?post_id=48370497
Which had the recruitment extending into next year (Looks like my 45% is good, but my estimate on 60% and 100% is possibly pessimistic if current forecasts are correct). We only had the information probably a month and a half after mesoblast would have had it from the DSMB, so they could have been a bit more communicative about the status of the trial enrolment from mid-year onwards. Why does this matter? Because options investors are investing based on incorrect information in the month or two where you are still forecasting enrolment by year's end. Not a big deal, and most things about this trial have been done really well, but it's just something they could have done better.
Having said all that, we had a chance to ask them about it all at the AGM and no one did, so... maybe we should have done that.
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