I'd just add the following for context: The pain international schools are currently experiencing is enormous. Schools are shut down during Covid and the stream of new expats has come to a halt and will only fully recover once we get a large scale vaccine rollout. If you were a principal of a school facing very uncertain enrollment prospects in 2021, you'd also think twice about your hiring strategy until things renormalize. Under these circumstances improving the churn rate at the height of this pain during the most intense renewal period is a real achievement.
The Faria partnership has clearly started kicking in, which is why Schrole was able to more than offset churn during peak renewal period (I think the math works out to something like mid 30s% renewals in October and November). Going forward, contracts coming up for renewal should be lower (call it around 24 contracts per month assuming the other 10 months are evenly distributed). Assuming churn rate stays the same we could get around 4 contracts churning off per month or 40 over the next 10 months. Schrole has just picked up over 22 contracts in a 2 month period, so just run-rating that would work out to a net +70 schools over the next 10 months (110-40=70).
Personally I think its incredibly difficult to sell-through to schools in the middle of a pandemic, so that guesstimate could be beaten fairly handily if we get vaccines fully rolled out by Q2 2020 and that leads to accelerating sales. I would like to see continued improvement in churn but was actually positively surprised to see the churn rate improve in the middle of a pandemic.
SCL Price at posting:
1.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
