@IronMike94, I really don't understand your thinking.
It's taken me years to accumulate my good-sized holding. I am averaged at $2.26 (lowest packet at $1.13, highest at $4.50). My investment thesis is hold until it's at least double digits (my most exciting retirement options kick in at around $11.50 or so).
There is no way on Earth I am going to sell shares on what would be really only the FIRST of a number of value-accretive announcements, albeit NOT for an EUA (where the SP tipping rules seem to be ONLY that the trial is halted for overwhelming efficacy, NOT that the FDA has already approved the product (which is a different, albeit a related issue)).
As well, all of our guesstimates are going to be low if there have been prior announcements for positive results on Phase 3 for CHF and CLBP, and/or partnership announcements in respect of those programs.
So my guess is, assuming we haven't yet heard anything about CLBP and CHF or licensing deals, that the morning that MSB issues a press release saying "DSMB recommends halting trial for overwhelming efficacy" (i.e., before the FDA has given Rem-L an EUA), the Aussie share market will be excited, but having been burnt by the FDA in the very recent past, and having the usual disdain for our beloved MSB, will nevertheless be quite cautious, pushing it to new heights, but not yet to double digits.
If the tipping pool was for "What will the SP be on the announcement that the FDA has granted an EUA?", and particularly if we already had positive announcements for CHF and/or CLBP, I would be guessing a much higher figure. That's 100% derisked on Rem-L for COVID ARDS.
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