STRONG SELL/ 50% downside potential, page-17

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RaceOncology

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08/12/20

08:06

Post #: 49409077
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Originally posted by BlueChipper1986: ↑

wombat you get a lot of likes and you have an obligation to not speak so blithely.

there is no way that the trials will be able to complete in 2 or 3 years. That is not possible. Even if it was possible, it takes at least 12 months from when the phase 3 trials finish until approvals may occur.

further optional buyouts in phase 1 and 2 are again not correct. Most buyouts occur at commencement of Phase 3 trials, or at least when the design of phase 3 is formalised.

Buyouts at phase 1 are very rare.

a lot of investors on RAC will believe that commercialisation and revenues is 2 or 3 years away and that is not true.

look at PAR, MSB etc. It will be around 12-15 years from the first patient was dosed before meaningful revenue.

IMO RAC is at least 5 years from proper revenues. It may re-rate in advance but a MC of $230mil is quite high for a company so early.

look at PAR. It’s MC is $500mil and it’s about to go into a global P3 trial in Europe and US for OA - an industry worth circa $15bn in estimated revenue for PAR. It is still 4 years away from finishing its P3 trial. that’s a good indication of where RAC could be when it starts it’s P3 trials. It shows at the moment, it is overvalued.

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I would encourage you to look carefully at what we have released in regards the new Three Pillars strategy as we have addressed all of these issues in some depth. While I can’t vouch for @wombat777’s analysis in this area, he has done a lot of work on why he thinks RAC is undervalued. RAC is a very unusual company and it is not appropriate to compare it to a company like PAR. This is nothing against PAR, but RAC and PAR are very different companies with different strengths and weaknesses.

RAC Price at posting: $2.13 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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