IMV
Looks like stochastics and MACD might take a breather. However fairly solid support at 13-13.5c i think.
This is also the price of the oversubscribed placement so there should be institutional interest at those levels or below. So my call would be a touch to 13-13.5c and the MACD histogram (shown in red and green) might stay as a buy signal.
Weekly looking quite decent still.
Note that red-line overhanging which has been touched 3 subsequent times.
This is somewhat of a loose possible prediction.
Noting at 30c MC would only be around 100m.
LTR
MC = 570M
Post Tax NPV8 = 1120M
EBITDA = 152M AUD P/A
CAPEX = 225M
*note they're using SC6 price of $740USD (lol)
AVZ
MC = 260M
Post Tax NPV10 = 832AUD (60% ownership)
EBITDA = $289M AUD P/A
CAPEX = $730M AUD
*note they're using SC6 price of $670USD
PSC
MC = 46M
Post Tax NPV10 = 870M
EBITDA = 226M AUD
CAPEX = $218M AUD
*note they're using SC6 price of $700USD - but have petalite premium on some product too.
So essentially this says PSC is the cheapest to build, they're ebitda is better than LTR by 50M odd. their NPV is better than AVZ (for 1/3rd the capital risk). If LTR used lower pricing and NPV10 not NPV8 IMO PSC would have a better NPV than both as well.
So irrespectively the economics basically lead these 2 companies and has not had the LOM updated for the recovery improvements of the petalite. This essentially increase LOM by 50% or so, hugely increasing NPV.
Also i forgot to mention, LTR and AVZ have no offtakes. None.
PSC has 100% petalite offtake and 72% spodumene offtake. Infact recent presentation said their dual train production profile would suit 100% of current spod offtakes.
(Massively de-risked)
Prospect also has mining license approved, it also has the SEZ approved.
Prospect is also building a pilot plant.
If you read all these stocks on paper you would think PSC should trade at parity or higher than these stocks. but nope 1/5th AVZ MC and 1/10th LTR.
In all aspect PSC IMO is the best risk verse reward lithium play on the ASX (imo) and i hold other lithium stocks.
Might take some time for the market to vindicate or indicate the same but happy to let this little number slip under the radar. before you know it finance will be secured and we'll be in production which they've flagged as calendar year 2022. LTR targeting 2025 and AVZ 2023-2024 IMO.
Home run, and my boots are full.
*disclosure my average is undeer 13c. If this goes below that price i'll average down
*strategy will be to free-carry (sell my initial capital) my holdings once the stock doubles to around 26-30c+
SF2TH
