posting motives...

Many types of posters...

Of late however, I have noticed a particular group dominate various threads…I thought it might be a worthwhile exercise if we highlighted the types we often see on HotCopper…

Main types of posters…

1. Shareholders, perhaps understandably discussing their stocks with the view of remaining in touch with the markets and fully informed, as they share their views on their investments with other like minded individuals. Some might feel this is best helped by talking up their stocks prospects, whilst others might adopt a more sanguine, even handed approach and prefer looking at both the pros and cons with equal measure.

2. Those who want to become shareholders, or those short on a stock...or maybe those who have simply temporarily traded out of a stock...who collectively, want to buy back in at lower prices. This group basically want to see the stock price fall and will usually talk down the stock in question by posting negative comment at every opportunity...at times even if manufactured. In essence, this group is the exact opposite of the first group above

3. Traders...who will swing from positive to negative posting styles depending on their position...usually adopting one or the other of the above two posting scenarios.

4. General market observers, or those with an interest in the market but not necessarily stock specific (such as journalists, students, retirees not directly in control of their investment stocks, etc)...who either scan the threads for a general feel for the market, be it for general knowledge, or in the case of journalists and/or market commentators, potential stories…or...who are using the retail market as a barometer of the wider market sentiment. These people, generally, are over represented in the silent majority…reading but not contributing.

5. Then we have those with vested interests beyond mere shareholders...or potential shareholders. In this group I include market hierarchy types, from brokers and fund managers through too majority shareholders and Company reps...even CEO's...whose agenda is generally focused on the health, or perhaps lack thereof, of a particular Company's share price. This can be driven by all manner of corporate incentive, be it placement related, financially motivated such as at options expiry times, or indeed linked to various other forms of corporate chess such as mergers, take-overs and/or JV's. Here we have well informed, typically intimately connected individuals, effectively seeding the threads with various snippets, from positive to negative depending on their agenda...one might argue, with the intention to deceive and dare I say, manipulate the market in a particular stock for a specific purpose.

This latter group, in my mind, is perhaps the most sinister of them all...for the simple fact, they prey on the wider ignorance of the non-connected retail market…us…to achieve their goals.

As I look around the threads, I see more and more evidence of the latter group being increasingly active in recent months, a sign in my mind we are at or near the bottom of at least one cycle…and I am talking commodities here.

I guess all we can do as "retailers", when faced with the task of determining the nature of a post, is ask a simple question...

What does the individual stand to gain from their "efforts" of posting what they have?...and with this in mind, how does the posters "efforts" relate to their possible motives for doing so?

For mine...if we see a long term shareholder is "supporting" their stock, whilst we may or may not agree with their views, we can at least understand why they are doing so…it is clear there is no sinister motive, other than a desire to see “their stock”…and the value of their investment…doing well. Such posting does NOT set out to rip others off, reduced the value of their portfolios, or make money out of the losses of others.

On the other hand, when we see those apparently not interested in a stock spend countless hours "talking it down", I for one find it very hard to relate to why they would do such a thing in the first place? I mean...who would just go out of their way to do such a thing…especially when it is more than once?

Now...before we get the usual..."we all have a right to an opinion...and don't have to be a shareholder to form one" type arguments...I agree and even accept we will get the odd “good Samaritan" posting on various threads to "save us all" from ourselves...but...and it is a big BUT…when you see more than one (even groups), posting in a similar way ON THE SAME STOCK...over and over…well I for one suspect we are reading posts from people with vested interests way beyond mere shareholders.

We need to be very careful of this latter group in my view…but in doing so, we can turn the tides of advantage here by taking note of the stocks they target in an attempt to determine if a possible corporate scenario may be unfolding?

At the end of the day however, all we can do is use our heads...read everything on here with a healthy degree of scepticism and be very aware there ARE people posting on here with direct links to all manner of stocks, who DO NOT disclose this fact, yet continue to post predominantly to meet a very specific, typically corporately focused agenda.

Please…always beware of who might be posting...and why…especially if they are impacting your investing decisions in any way and realie many do not post factually!

Cheers!