unemployment is the key

The world will hear a lot of huffing and puffing as we approach the G20 conference. Leaders will talk-up their courage/wisdom in solving the economic crisis. Personally I think the only person who understoodthe 1929 depression was JP Morgan (who I read was Secretary of Treasury... which shocked me a I thought he never entered govt). Anyway he said..... let the mkt (invisible hand of Adam Smith) determine the outcome. Of course Roosevelt got into power and threw money at it which has still not be repaid in full!!
So I have little faith this crisis over. My prediction and response is:

1) This current rally will be affected by traders taking profits.
2) How far the mkt falls will depend on the rate of unemployment. When people are one job away from bankruptcy they will slow consumption strongly and save. Hence, durable goods such as cars will not recover for many(maybe 10)years.
3) Fixed assets especially commercial property has loooong way to fall.
4) Demand for all commodities will stay stagnant.Even oil price in short term will stay low as current supplies are sufficient. Medium/long term Oil will skyrocket as current wells run dry.
5) Big spending on infrastructure will only continue with govt money. So over next 3-4 years companies that can get govt contracts will benefit. More on this later.
6) Currencies will become hard/impossible to predict with economies of so many countries in freefall. My only suggestion is AUD will strengthen.However RBA and Aus treasury will spend big to keep AUD as low as possible.
7) Gold should rise. But may not be the 'moonshot' many are predicting. Read exc article on weekend showing how gold and especially silver mkt is totally dominated and manipulated by 2 companies JPMorgan and HSBC. Their recent shorts on silver were 120% of entire mkt!!!
8) But the KEY indicator re how economies around world are doing is unemployment numbers. No amount of govt persuasion to spend will make any difference if people have lost their job or are at high risk of losing job. Employment is a lagging indicator but is the best indicator. More jobs lost=higher govt largess.

So even companies with solid prospects such as UGL will falling price as this tsunami of bad news (and huge numbers of lost jobs)continues to flow. I took profits yesterday and reduced my holdings in UGL and other companies considerably. Will look to buy back when depth of world recession becomes clearer. But Japan/Europe/USA is HUGE strife. Unprecedented. So am playing safe despite my faith in my favourite companies.
Did keep my gold shares as they have ultra low cost of prod and anything is possible with gold right now. Sold my oilers last week which a month ago i never thought i would be doing.