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Ann: Trading halt, page-155

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Malown1

363 Posts.

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16/12/20

12:04

Post #: 49617562
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Originally posted by stockrock: ↑

This could be anything... but here are some thoughts:

I feel the trading halt is not:
1. a capital raising - or else it would have said so in the trading halt announcement by MSB, instead it is a corporate update;

2. not the minutes from the Type A meeting with the FDA for Ryoncil - this does not warrant a trading halt, and MSB already eluded to the outcome;

3. stand-alone CLBP trial results - no matter what the results were for the CLBP clinical trial, it does not warrant a trading halt... but it could be related;

4. stand-alone 60% interim read-out on the COVID-19 ARDS trial with a recommendation to continue as planned or to be stopped for futility, these would just be normal price sensitive announcements and do not warrant a trading halt.

What I think it might be:
1. CLBP clinical trial results attached with a global partnership - we know MSB have been in discussions with large pharmas for a while on this, and whilst they pulled the trigger on Europe and Latin America with Gruenthal.. the big players would only agree to a partnership if the phase 3 trial was successful. The clinical trial read-out could have been the trigger that would mean the partner and Mesoblast are now negotiating final terms for release on Friday (it could also go into suspension and extend to next week).

2. DSMB has recommended an early stop for overwhelming efficacy and MSB have requested an urgent meeting with the FDA, or already has one set up later this week or early next week and MSB and the NIH are continuing with the trial until they have an agreement with the FDA on the path forward for an EUA and accelerated approval pathway;

3. Novartis have approached MSB for a take-over, with all-cause ARDS already partnered... the results from yesterday's phase 3 CHF trial, which to ordinary investors was a fail - but to big pharmas in the cardiovascular space would have been stunning, tipped the scales and figured they wanted into our technology in more ways than one.

4. New corporate partnership for global CHF rights based on yesterday's phase 3 trial results.

Chances are it'll be left field ... MSB do run a tight-ship (just look no further than the Novartis agreement) ... but it does have a positive feel about it.

Goodluck all

Expand

@stockrock a question regards #2 DSMB stops trial : I am trying to get a negative out of my brain! Has there been any precedence regards a trial being successful for phase 1 & 2 readouts, yet failing at a 3rd readout? Not downramping as I have stated on HC previously I have been, and still am in for the long haul. I'm just trying to ascertain if there is any remote possibility of a negative on ARDS for efficacy at such a late date?
Thx for any opinion.
Malown1

MSB Price at posting: $3.77 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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