When the share price was $1 earlier this year, all trials and as such all knowledge about any phase III trial relating to MSCs was an unknown (low % reality of success - way below 50%) yet you were an investor.
3 out of 4 trials are now known. None of the 3 hit a home run but none of the 3 was deemed a failure and was put in the bin. I agree 50/50 sounds about right. Note: a lot higher than earlier this year (refer above). And the share price is close to 2.5 times $1.
You held when the odds were well below 50% for years. Then you sold when the odds got to 50%. At a time when a tremendous amount of unknowns are knows.
There is an argument against what you have done - can you see that? In fact there is an argument to do exactly the reverse of what you have done. And no, I don't know what is going to happen from here.
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