Ann: Strategic Update, page-6

I think TFL are starting to get some recognition and the accumulation continues slowly.

I was doing some further comparison between listed ASX peers to sense check where TFL is currently. I choose Maggie Beer which is a similar business, albeit with a broader range and name recognition (for over 50's), with better mainland distribution. Also included for the Tassie comparison is PFT, which got a fair bit of hype on not much revenue this year.

See my comparison of FY19, FY20 and Q1 sales numbers (see notes below).

		Tasfoods	Maggie Beer	Pure Foods
1		TFL	MBH	PFT
2	Share Price	0.125	0.435	$1.02
3	Market Cap	43.98m	90.29m	54.15m
4
5	Q1 Sales	16,992	13,200	1,367
6	Q1 Sales growth	24%	19.2%	47%
7	Q1 EBITDA	236	1,600	169
8
9	FY20 Revenue	66,934	44,508	4,279
10	FY20 Rev Growth	32.05%	3.77%	12.93%
11	FY20 EBITDA	-586	248	41
12	FY20 NPAT	-1,400	-14,754	-203
13
14	FY19 Revenue	50,690	42,893	3,789
15	FY19 EBITDA	-658	-5,360	-180
16	FY19 NPAT	-3,459	-21,656	-158

Notes:
1. TFL run a calendar FY, so their FY20 isn't finished yet, but I have used their Q3 numbers, along with conservative Q4 numbers for comparison. These are also the underlying numbers, as they had some impairments written off in the HY.
2. Q1 numbers for TFL are correct, but again, it was their Q3.
3. I had to do an educated guess on the MBH sales number, based on the growth they had talked about and previous year sales.

These are all good little businesses, so not looking to suggest one business is better than the other, each has its own unique management, product and market dynamics at play. But which one is best value at the moment?

I think it continues to highlight is that TFL have a really significant revenue base now, which is largely centered on Tassie and can only continue to grow significantly as it drive sales expansion onto the mainland.

The comparison also suggests that management still have some work to do tightening up costs (ie: Corporate) and expanding profit margins to drive a return for the business, as you can see from MBH how quickly things can turn around if the tough decisions are made. Poultry margin returning after COVID will help this, as will the ready made meals range. Online sales should also be a huge focus for the business.

Given the respective market caps, I think TFL really deserves to be closer to $70m, ahead of PFT and chasing MBH who are leading on an EBIT multiple after their Q1 results.

I've still got this pegged for a breakout in January, so let's see how we go.