2020-21 Harvest Updates, page-79

GNC published its 4 January 2021 update prior to market opening on 5 Jan.

Queensland receivals were a paltry 900 tonnes but any more was a bonus, bringing the total to 955600 tonnes. This is about half the amount of the 2016-17 season as from all reports Qld didn't have the ideal weather much of NSW and Victoria enjoyed for graingrowing.

However, the relatively small southwest Qld sorghum crop has been helped (as is the case in northwest NSW) by good rains thus far, five-six weeks into summer.

In NSW, 123100 further tonnes came in, which is described by GrainCorp as a 'trickle' but to me its better than that. The total is now a terrific 8340200 tonnes. In 2016-17, the last excellent season, NSW receivals to 16 January 2017 were 6566100 tonnes so the 2020-21 total for the winter crop is well above that, and a big contributor to the overall fantastic picture for GNC.

In Victoria, to 16 January 2017, 3739400 tonnes were received, but the January 2021 update shows a further 209600 tonnes coming in to silos and bunkers, so the 2020-21 total has become 3430400 tonnes. GNC comments that 'Wimmera and Central Victoria clusters are seeing the most action', with wet weather recently meaning harvesting will continue late into January. It doesn't comment as to whether the rains will see quality issues with the remaining harvest, so 'no comment' suggests to me there won't be too many problems (but my knowledge about stripe rust and other factors is nil, so bar that in mind).

Overall, GNC has now received 12726200 tonnes, a rise of 333600 tonnes in the last fortnight (as there was no update between Christmas and New Year).

When one adds in direct-to-port receivals of at least 300000 tonnes, and the yet to be known summer crop, it's easy to see GNC handling 13.5 million tonnes on its own this year, and if I'm not mistaken, it handles grain for other agents/marketers as well.

No wonder shipping/ports are already (according to GNC) booked out for much of 2021. Perhaps this is one of its difficulties: actually obtaining spare bulk shipping at an acceptable rate per thousand tonnes. Thankfully as some of our contributors to this thread have opined, Australian grain remains competitively priced - many suggest it's the cheapest worldwide, and best of all, GNC only has a minor amount of its exports going to mainland communist China. Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam are some of the largest customers, plus of course domestic demand in Oz.

Interestingly, the ANZ Bank claimed that at US0.77, the A$ was overvalued and suggested it ought fall to 75 cents US. Time will tell. Today the midmarket rate at 0945 hours AEDT was 0.767. Previous (dated) research suggests that while GNC is an international trader, it benefits from a lower A$ so the recent rise from US0.55 has on balance not been good for GNC, though bear in mind many years ago an A$ purchased US$1.49 so in 40 or so years 'we've fallen a lot'.