With two weeks remaining to the secondary peak of Martin Amstrong’s economic cycle (23 April 2009), I note that many bullish indictors are nearing or already at their peaks. I also note that some major resource plays are already declining (including BHP), indicating that the smart money has long left the market and speculative interest remains prominent in the daily volatility that prevails recent action imho.
The Baltic Dry Index, after rallying strongly in recent months has also weakened and is showing signs of rolling over together with Oil and Copper which led the recent rally.
It is arguable that stimulus efforts by governments around the world will be able to turn this crisis around and some argue that nothing can save us from doom. Although, this stimuli may cushion the severity of the decline or prolong it depending which camp one believes.
The VIX (daily) continues to hover around the 40 region, with little/no signs of abating. The VIX (weekly) Stochastic is nearing it’s cyclic low which is likely to bottom in conjunction with Amstrong’s cycle high.
Broadening formations of indices in many time frames together with negative divergences continue to haunt the continuation of this rally.
BHP Price at posting:
$32.10 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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