Every so often Sectors get very overheated and if you are an investor in the sector it is good to pay attention and not be over joyed in your good fortune. Key examples of this are DOT XOM in 1999 and 2000 and banking in 2008. Lynas is firmly in the new energy sector as are many other companies. Tesla is the most extreme example of any company of this sector. Here are some facts to consider in deciding if sector is over heated and caution should be used.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers-by-market-cap/
Tesla Market cap is USD 863 B Toyota is USD 212 In fact Teslas market Cap is bigger than the next 9 auto makers combined! Does any one think Tesla can displace even half the cars made by these 9 manufactures?
Tesla in 2020 made 509K cars. Finally meeting the number Elton promised for 2018. World wide 62 M cars were made so Tesla is 0.8 % of WW production. When the Hype wears off what justifies Tesla price compared to other manufactures?
Lynas is also in this new energyy sector. Lynas has only made money two years. IF we ignore all the money lost by NC and only look at profits since AL took over they still only have loses. Amanda took over in Sept 2014 NC totally stepped down Jan 2015. To be fair to AL I will only concider Lynas resuts for 2016 and beyound. all numbers from anual reports. Include exchange gains & losses.
2016 loss AUD 122 M.
2017 loss AUD 45M
2018 gain AUD 100M
2019 gain AUD 93M this is the restated amount.
2020 loss AUD 32 M
Excluding the first 9 months of AL being CEO because that was some what a NC carry over. Lynas has loss AUD 106M while she is in control. If any one wants to add 2015 in it was AUD 197M. Or maybe prorate it to 75% for time AL was in controll.
If any one wants to argue what future price may be take the Production numbers specified in 5 year plan and Figure out what Products have to sell for to justify a Market cap of AUD 4.1 B at a PE of 25 with 901M shares. When gloss wears off this company PE will be close to other Minning and manufacturing companies which are less than 20.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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