Hi Sam,
I believe I have read this figure from a report released and spoken about by David Breeze (suspect that I saw it on the BPH thread some time back) that quoted - from memory - that there was a success rate of near 79% from similar drilling targets to that facing PEP-11 now. The 21% chance of failure is just the reverse of that.
79%, in drilling terms, is exceptionally high. In the older days, a wild cat could be a 10% chance.
Remember, Sam. No matter what anyone tells you, there is no such thing as a certainty in this game if you are targeting an area that has not already produced the goods. The outlook for PEP-11 is good but the jury won't report until the drill bit finishes spinning.
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