Hi all - I had a quick chance to compare PPS' December FUM flows to two recent broker report estimates, to benchmark how the company is fairing relative to expectation.
Short story - smashing it!
Bell Potter (dated 21 oct) forecast for the Dec quarter:
AU platform fcst of $15.315 vs actual of 16.445
Interestational fcst of 3.689 vs actual of 3.905
Total fcst of 19.0 vs actual of 20.35
Above all excludes VMAA
Beat FUM forecast by 7%, and tracking at ~Q1/Q2 FY22 forecast
EL&C
don't provide quarterly FUM/FUA forecasts, but the December quarter has already beat the FUM forecast as at 30 June 2021 of 19.8, so similarly tracking to a Q1/Q2 FY22 FUM rate already
Canacord
FY21 (30 June 2021) forecast of 19.9, and FY22 (30 June 2022) of 22
Suffice to say PPS tracking well ahead of them
As the single key operational driver, FUM/FUA, PPS is tracking well ahead of market consensus. The consensus TP from these three is 80 cents (80c Canaccord, 75c ELC, 85c BP) - so in theory if just meeting their forecasts the stock would gravitate to 80c over the course of a year. The company is beating their FUM forecasts by about a year, or so, so I'd say the share price could/should gravitate to 80 cents now, with new TP's by brokers as analysts digest the impact.
It's a scale game so DCF impacts should be significant as it brings profitability faster where it could most / less discounted.
PPS Price at posting:
70.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)