O.K so following on from the above analysis to break it down further and to try and determine where exactly the go to price is beyond 10 cents , lets start first by looking to the number of theoretical ' PIPs ' between our current price and 15 cents.
And I say theoretical because effectively from 10.0 cents we are then trading at the 5 x .1 PIP points unless you are trading the midpoint price between the half cent mark.
OK ....so there are 36 PIPs remaining to get us to 15 cents , then another 50 basis points or pips remaining from 10 .0 to 15.0 . So that's 86 PIPs in total in getting us to 15.0 cents.
At the moment after adjusting for the Options pricing , we are now on a trajectory of $11 million for every 10% increase in share price or $1,83 million for every single PIP increase in the SP. And this was up from $1.125 million which I calculated previously when the SP increase the first time for 6 PIPs from 5.8 to 6.4 cent
So by observing this calculation , we would then be up in theory another approximate another $65.88 million in getting us to the 10.0 cent mark and a further $91.5 million in launching us from 10.0 cents to 15.0 cents. So that's a total of $157.3 million increase in market cap on top of our current $109 million putting us at a total market capitalization of $266.3 million.
The two prong questions for me then become - would this market capitalization be justified ? , and if so what would it take in convincing the market in driving it to this valuation. ?
And this is where I would then revisit the calculations in my above posts on total ' Gross Transaction ' numbers per Customer and / or the number of customers which would need to be acquired in supporting this valuation.
So you all would remember management's projected $225 million per month potential gross transactions right ? . We should also remember management's claims ( before current double digit reported increases in customers since then ) of the 22,000 existing customer base. OK so we know that's a total of $2.7 billion gross transactions per annum or $122,727 contribution from each of the previously mentioned 22,000 Customers.
And we know this is not an absurd number because it can be supported by the small business Ombudsman 2020 report which categorizes 40% of small business were surveyed at between $50,000 and $200,000 annual turnover , with another 25% represented in the category turnovers of $50,000 and under , and 35% with annual turnovers of between $200,000 and $2 million. So obtaining $122,727 from each customer could very well ONLY represent 1 times turnover for the many potential customers.
And we know from there that turnover is not PROFIT - so there could very well be at least another 50% of transactions net of tax payable on the cost side of the reported turnovers.
So the conclusion is that the $122,727 per annum or $10,227 per month.... or even or $340.90 per day based on a 30 day month .
So we can see by my above post and the calculations which were made at the market capitalization of $98 million that the monthly total per the 22,000 Customers was ONLY $4,454 per annum and ONLY $366 per month - which is a clear difference leaving the room for almost 28 times the growth reflection of where we currently sat as of close of trading on Thursday ....and 25 times that of yesterday's market valuations. So that's a potential growth profile that if eventuates would see a Share Price of $1.60 and a market capitalization of $2,750 billion.
Even if we say that the market will take more of a wait and see approach by using the projected ' per month ' comparative as against the YEARLY as expressed by the current ' moving ' market capitalization target - this would see the $10,227 per month forecast being 2.296 times that of the $4,454 estimated yearly figure based on current ' daily ' market capitalization.
And so by using this more conservative approach which suggest that the ' Monthly ' figure of Customer growth will ultimately grow into the ' Yearly ' number would then see us at a current ' Justifiable ' share price of 14.5 - 15.0 cents.
So the final question would be that is this $1.83 million value for each PIP from current levels to 15.0 cents deservedly being driven by existing customer numbers which see us grow into this number or from ' NEW ' customer growth being added on top of that which will be inherited in the acquisition of Appstablishment's numbers. And if it isn't , then is there further room to even move up from there another 66.67% due to customer number growth above this originally purported 22,000.
Even if 25 cents is not possible by 25th or end of January - would 15.0 cents be an equally satisfying interim consolation prize. In either case , a rise to 25 would only be equivalent to approximately the same increase that Sayona Mining experienced with their recent run from the 1 cent levels to the current 4.5 cent level yesterday. An increase which saw it put on roughly $125 million to its market capitalization in only 5 days.
So I guess anything is possible right ......
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