Tiresias on price action

“There is tide in the affairs of me, which taken at the tide leads onto fortune.”

William Shakespeare

My friends,

Tiresias has previously discussed the science of Optiscan’s Confocal Laser Endomicroscopy (CLE). He has also talked about history of new technology in medicine and the uptake of new breakthroughs. He has tried to paint a picture of the medical mindset and why and how doctors either take-up or do not take-up new technology. He has been quite clear on the incentives and counter incentives in doctors’ actions and how they are not at all congruent with patient outcomes and benefits. Doctors’ financial incentives are preeminent in most medical decisions. This of course surprises many patients, and the doctors will deny this and attack it with every available tool, and they have many. If you don’t believe anything anyone says, you can believe Tiresias on this.

In previous posts Tiresias has touched on market action and of market psychology and today he thought it worthwhile to take a brief look at the market action again. Optiscan made a positive little announcement to the market this past week. There was a jump in volume and brief Jump to 12cents and then return to below 12cents, range trading. So, the announcement didn’t do much for the price. Well, of course this is not quite so. Optiscan has had a lot of legacy shares held by disillusioned hands, acquired at different prices. Trading of these shares is healthy for Optiscan’s future share price. Trading is transfer of shares from weak non-believing hands to strong believing hands. Teresa's sees that jump coming and it will not be too long. The share price can only rise when the last pip has squeaked. Teresa's sees that jump coming and it will not be too long. There will be more announcements and one of them will make the price jump to the next level.

So, my friends, what will be the catalyst for that jump. There are a number of possible ones that Tiresias can foresee. Announcement of further oral cancer study; sales for oral cancer into the Asian world markets, which do not need FDA, CE Marg or TGA approvals; commencement of a study in cervical cancer; commencement of the awaited breast-cancer trial; sales of ConVivo for brain tumour. Though the brain tumour application will not be the biggest revenue for Optiscan, it is very important in demonstrating the feasibility, practicality and importance in treatment of cancer that that the most difficult of organs, the brain. Tiresias has also previously mentioned the path to widespread usage of ConVivo for brain tumour surgery. At present Carl Zeiss has installed a number of units in elite centres in Germany, France, Italy, in the USA as part of a shake down process to iron out any practical problems and smooth the way for wider release. Some in the market may have misread this for the delay in orders. Before there is full wide release of ConVivo by Zeiss it is likely a few more elite academic neurosurgical centres will get trial ConVivo instruments. The next Convivo announcements is likely to be an installation of ConVivo in further elite academic hospitals as the second phase before general release. He anticipates a big splash from this and looks forward significant jump in the share price. He anticipates that we will see $.20 before we see $.10. Should he hedge these numbers this “provocative” prophecy? Well perhaps. There may be some weak holders out there who will sell the last few millions of their stock down to 10 or even eight cents but that is getting less and less likely. As always time will tell.