Strike AWE Mitsui Comparison, page-80

Reading AWE's final annual report before the takeover shows that STX is in a similar position to AWE.
Waitsia stage 2 was going to be a 100 TJ/day development for the domestic market.
Now Waitsia stage 2 is going to be a 250 TJ/day for export.
AWE was talking about much the same points as STX is now - tightening domestic supply due to NWE, and potential to sell to NWE in the future.

What all this means is that the market was valuing AWE on what they could deliver (100 TJ/day for domestic). However, their assets were worth a lot more to someone else (Mitsui) than it was worth to AWE. This created the opportunity for the takeover as Mitsui could pay out (at a premium) the AWE shareholders and still make money with Waitsia (and Beharra Springs).

The implications for STX is that a takeover is only possible if the acquirer were to value STX's assets far higher than STX's shareholders do. The reason why this could happen would be the same as AWE - the LNG netback price (i.e. export) being significantly higher than the domestic price.

However, this seems increasingly less likely. The NWS decline should drive domestic prices higher. At the same time, Waitsia will strengthen the linkage between the domestic and LNG prices.

As the difference between the domestic and LNG prices decreases, STX's value will increase (as they'll make more money). At the same time, the possibility of a takeover decreases (less arbitrage).