Hi gindaldan, There is a lot more than the EPA issue holding GBG back now. I agree with your points as to which stocks are favoured and why.
Not in any order, but the following are significant risks at this stage that must be overcome for GBG to not have any impedence. EPA FIRB Swan CDB IO pricing Oakajee
To clear up a couple of points. What I've said, more or less, is, "how do we know there isn't a problem that they are trying to sort out". I don't know if there is a definite major issue holding up final decisions but when the EPA review was completed in Jan and we are now nearly in May, then it's not straight forward to just direct the blame at the EPA from the perspective of being slack, as the novices are doing.
I'm reasonably content that approval will eventually be given whether by the EPA or the WA Gov't in the end. I am more concerned in the near term with the FIRB and Swan decisions.
The stake Ansteel will own is significant, double FMG/Valin's recent request. The Gov't recognises the public is uneasy about the level of foreign ownership in Aussie assets and the selloff during the current crisis. Swan made definite comments on the level of that ownership and the reason approval was allowed. GBG/Ansteel application is on another level.
The fact that significant employment will be available should a favourable decision be made, makes it reasonable to assume that a positive outcome is the more likely. At worst, GBG will be carrying significant debt if the FIRB or Swan decision is negative but the market wants to know more definitely which way it will pan out.
GBG Price at posting:
58.9¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
