Good observation
@MarkHGOThere has been an increase in selling since 16th Dec. I assumed the high volume in sells on the 16th Dec is associated with the news on the 15th Dec that the first batch of escrow shares are coming out.
But there have been some meaningless sells since 31st Dec. The reason why I felt they are ridiculous is because the seller is in a rush dropping big lots (300k shares, which is sizeable for Icetana in ASX/Chi-x) one after another relentlessly until late last week this is matched by aggressive bidding to catch the sells, which is really good to see.
I feel, these are neither retail buys nor retail sells because retail sellers typically don't throw big lots in such a rush to dispose off at any available price/volume with out any negative news (may be a generalisation)...similarly retail buyers don't put 300k/400k orders across ASX and Chi-x to catch these bids, knowing there isn't much support in the bids underneath.
My guesses, purely in my opinion only based on the timing, are:
-> The sellers are possibly
a) the outgoing CFO and his associates or
b) one of the large'ish i.e. 1mil shareholder who got their shares out of escrow recently or
c) one of the above combined with some retail cashing in to preserve capital because most would be selling at a loss at this price level.
I don't think the seller is one of the top 5, because it's impossible to dispose off more than 1mil shares by following this fast-tracked sells. I am not alleging anyone here, but rather just guessing! I'm sure each have their own rules/circumstances and nothing wrong with that.
-> The buyers are possibly
a) the CEO, I mentioned few times earlier that I really like Matt, who already purchased shares on-market multiple times in the past or
b) one of the top 5 grabbing these loose shares and providing some support or
c) a new high net worth tech savvy investor
Keeping the guessing games aside
I am still very positive on Icetana. While it hasn't progressed as well as we or I want in the past 12 months, they have managed to keep the costs low and the pipeline looks pretty strong whilst improving the AI product. All they need is one or two large orders (possibly in the US prisons space) to make them cashflow positive and this would turn the company around very quickly. I expect the upcoming quarterly to be good, including the R&D rebate, the job keeper stuff and low costs, fingers crossed!
Anyone interested in this company must see the below video, the points I really like are:
- Matt's confidence in his voice and his passion for the company and the product
- Upcoming product pipeline and sales pipeline in progress (18 in progress and expecting half of 21 in negotiations to be finalised, which means almost double the size of existing 36 sites)
- Kevin Brown's background...and the movement of the company to SaaS model with recurring revenues
Lots to look forward to in 2021!! All IMO, please DYOR and good luck to all
