I find the below article intriguing. Below if true, may explains my observation that when gold price gets to the US market, it usually drops after a good rally i.e. this is due to the short positions on COMEX futures. COMEX daily figure of 34Moz (short position) versus LBMA 30Moz (long position)
As for the current weakness in gold price, the below date may explain why, given that LBMA (London) i.e. long positions are being reduced/liquidated in anticipation of the rule change on NSFR as of 28th June 2021: no buying or demand pressure on gold and therefore weakness in gold price. I would imagine this is also a good opportunity for short-sellers to unwind their short positions against the long positions. Hence sometime before 28th June, gold price will stabilise and one would expect to see gold price starting to creep up.
However come Jan 2022, Basel III NSFR of 85% for gold will kick in and there will be less short-selling i.e. implying reduced supply of gold or paper gold and I would think sometime before Jan 2022 or in H2 of 2021, there will be another boost to gold price.
If my deduction holds true then we are going to see good gold price movement in 2021.
Good luck to all gold miner shareholders.
All IMHO.
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