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exponential growth, page-6

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    Here we go: NOt nearly as scary as you thought I bet

    Phase 1: No animal influenza viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infection in animals.

    Phase 2: An animal influenza virus circulating in domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans and is therefore considered a specific potential pandemic threat.

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    Phase 3: An animal or human-animal influenza virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks.

    During the first three phases, the WHO advises countries to "prepare the health system to scale up".

    Phase 4: Human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza virus able to sustain community-level outbreaks has been verified. Countries are advised to "activate contingency plans".

    Phase 5: The same identified virus has caused sustained community-level outbreaks in two or more countries in one WHO region. A pandemic is officially under way.

    Phase 6: In addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5, the same virus has caused sustained community level outbreaks in at least one other country in another WHO region.

    During phases five and six, countries are advised to "implement contingency plans for health systems at all levels".
 
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