Hi everyone, I've been sitting on these charts for a while just to see how everything plays out, and the recent movement upwards (somewhat) reinforces my hypothesis so I figured I should share.
I welcome feedback!
Skip to the end for TL;DR, or just scroll to "Where to from here?".March crashASSUMPTIONS: The run up from the March crash is a wave 1 of a new impulse (uptrend) wave. These current movements could possibly be parts of other (bearish) larger waves but I've had a macro look and it's quite possible they're not and I'm not going to get into an analysis of 14 years of price movements here lol. Perhaps I'll specifically look for a bearish scenario in the future and post it here just for objectivity. But company outlook + market conditions lead me to believe we're in a new uptrend. (I have a theory on how real world events can initiate Elliott Wave, may also discuss that separately elsewhere).
Firstly, the run back up from the March crash left us with choppy supports, with significant volume at 0.90. This rally reached 1.485 which was an easy 66% profit from 0.90 where the majority of buyers were. I believe this easy profit taking is what encouraged the ranging afterwards and subsequent combo wave.
Ranging since June peakSince the peak at 1.48, I believe we've played out a triple combo correction, anyone who knows EW knows I'm being bold for suggesting this is the case since they're so rare, but I can classify and identify the internal waves for the most part + the combo has played out almost exactly 400% the time distance of the post-March run. See end of section for classifications of internal waves.
Explanation for current placement of 2ⓧ. Perfectly valid, albeit stupid, formation of ⓩ.
OR; 2ⓧ is actually placed at the top of that wick and it's just a zigzag down with a flat (b). think either could apply so who cares. It doesn't change anything.
If this is the case, it's cool that both ⓧ and 2ⓧ near-hit 0.768 of a fib ratio drawn from 0 to ⓨ (although ⓨ isn't the orthodox bottom, it does have more importance than a non-wave ending price movement. There doesn't seem to be a fib relationship from to ⓩ in regards to other wave peaks/troughs).
There are some other nice fib relationships between those waves, e.g. 0 - ⓨ = ⓨ - ⓩ and ⓧ - ⓨ = ⓨ - 2ⓧ.
Anyway that is just fun hindsight stuff, continuing...
The main uncertainty here is the final z wave, that contraction of price towards the end is confusing but it
technically doesn't break any rules that I can tell.
To follow EWers: This does go against the guideline of alternation, but only partially. X waves are reactive waves in a downwards combination, so they are a distinctly different mode to motive waves (W, Y, Z). The ⓨ here being an expanded flat is good evidence to assume that ⓧ is a zigzag rather than another expanded flat, but similarly to the placement of 2ⓧ, who cares it doesn't matter. It's just fun
Where to from here?ASSUMING that wave 2 is now complete, if we project wave 1 from wave 2 and look at the 1.618 multiple, we end up with a price target of 2.885 for wave 3. A simple fib time relationship, could just be 0 - 1 projected from 2, which gives us 23rd of August 2021. (⚠ Time predictions are usually wrong!)
Which is interestingly enough extremely close to the listing price, and one of the pivot points in the downtrend from Oct 13 to Mar 20 (hopefully ended).
"But what about nowwww? I'm an impatient little baby!"A more short-term projection would be the following;
Wave (i) projected from (ii) gives a price target of 1.40, and with time relationships, I'm not sure which multiple is more common (I chose the 3x multiple in the above example out of realism and conservatism). Here it could be anywhere, 12th of Feb sounds about right.. (⚠ Time predictions are usually wrong!)
What if I'm wrong?Impossible. Just kidding. In fact, I thought this (iii) wave would move more drastically by now, so I might already be incorrect. Wave (ii) technically isn't invalidated yet and could still be in play, it's just very unlikely to be the case at the shorter timeframes (combo and elongated corrective waves seem to be less likely on smaller timeframes (lower degrees)).
The main thing seems to be if whether or not I'm wrong about this being a new impulse wave since the March crash. If it isn't then it's a big issue, but that downtrend from Oct 13 to (maybe) Mar 20, was very slowly losing its downward force (which isn't unexpected as price lowers the possible divisions also lower, but nonetheless). It was bottoming out basically. And you often see bottom outs as the end of downtrends (a good example being 3/4 year bear market after Bitcoin peaked in 2017). Perhaps if rona didn't crash everything, we would have seen a similar formation for the HUM price action, assuming of course the underlying company didn't go kaput.Main concerns:As mentioned, my target for wave 3 is 2.885. The price distance from here to there is pretty big, and will require some drastic movements. I hope that wave ((iii)) will extend how it typically does in stock markets like so. Also this diagram possibly elucidates the simple concept behind Elliott Waves for anyone who read this and has no idea what I'm talking about. (((i)) = ⓘ. Can't put iii in a circle
TL;DR:
My next price target is 1.25, to confirm completion of wave (ii), then 1.40 for a hypothetical peak of wave (iii). Then a dip, then wave (v) to complete wave ⓘ. Main concern is that the current price movements are not part of an overall uptrend, but instead a continuation of the downtrend beginning Oct 13. Consider these projections a bullish outlook for sure.
I will post my updates in this thread from now on.I plan on doing updates whenever needed so I'm going to be including the following at the end of my posts:
If you're interested in Elliott Wave read Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter, then Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading by Wayne Gorman &Jeffrey Kennedy.
If you don't believe any of this stuff I don't care, I'm just doing this for fun.
Outlooks are probably wrong, DYOR, and you're stupid if you trade based on my charts so don't do that.
(20min delay)