Ann: December 2020 Quarterly Report, page-86

I think a way to tell when it happens is in currencies. The US Fed is too far into the US stock market to allow it to fail, this seems to come from the US being a capitalist country that supports business - as opposed to a democracy.
If the US stock market cant fall then the value of the currency it is priced in should fall. This would allow the US to win the currency war by making it's exports cheap to other countries.
USDX below 86.5 would be the signal, and if it keeps going low to mid 50's could be seen imo. I get 53 as a potential low.
If the USD was to devalue this much it would benefit US companies but hurt US citizens, and allow other assets based in USD to rise like Gold and Oil.
The issue I see for us in Aus, is if the US increase interest rates to prevent hyperinflation, as that would filter over to here and be another recession we had to have perhaps.