Beware The 'Experts', page-5

Well, Spark never had an opportunity to bid last time. NZR bent Martin over a barrel and got a number that was acceptable. They even nabbed a slice of the business thank-you-very-much.

In 5 years time, if they actually go out to tender (and I expect they will) then there will be a massive slug fest between Sky and Spark.

No guarantee Sky will hold onto the rights next time. And I expect Spark will ramp up the price tag so high that Sky may have to let the rights go to avoid a Pyrrhic victory scenario.

Diversifying into broadband and mobile while beefing up our entertainment bundles outside of sport will be hugely important to Sky in the future.

At some point we are going to lose the rugby rights. It cannot be that we are reliant on a single contract or else we don't have a business anymore.

Rugby is important to Sky, but I also think the 'experts' over egg the level of importance of single sporting contracts too. The majority of Sky's customer base have non-sport entertainment packages. Losing rugby would be bad news for Sky, don't get me wrong - but I don't think it would be a mortal blow. And I would rather surrender the rights than pay way over the odds and not be able to make a profit.

And then there is the question of whether Spark shareholders would be happy to overpay so significantly for some rugby games that they have no hope of generating a fair return on.

If anyone outbids Sky then, by definition, they will have dropped their trousers to do so.