I think you are completely on the money (no pun intended) Greenflint.
I am not a fan of BITCOIN or crypto currencies - though a friend almost convinced me to buy two or three when they were $8k - I think they are $60k now. Problem is I would have fretted every day until I sold them.
Now I am the person who also said that gold will never get to $10k in my lifetime - though I know I will upset the "hide in a cave " club so maybe that comment could be tested To all my cave dwelling friends - I love you
1) India and China have both indicated that they want to ban crypto currencies - they are not the only ones that have hinted at that. As they are not backed by anything they have the ability to undermine countries economies. Crypto currencies will have a short shelf life - maybe just another decade.
2) Crypto currencies are like investing in thin air - their value is purely what the next person wants to pay for them - nothing else.
3) As you said Greenflint, they can be extremely volatile - and the movements are not by a few degrees when that happens.
4) It is already established that criminals - big and large - are using Bitcoin to make transactions that the police can't track. This will become a growing problem. Drug dealers and tax frauds are the main ones but so is fencing stolen goods.
The past year has reinforced to us that there already is a trend towards "cashless societies. Indeed, some businesses are already there and don't accept cash - mostly small businesses at the moment. Maybe in 10 years we will have arrived at that destination. That will not help the cause of crypto currencies as all governments will want to keep track of all transactions - as they should.
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